Russian diplomat questions viability of “Trump Route” project

A senior Russian Foreign Ministry official has said the proposed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), intended to connect mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan through southern Armenia, did not emerge suddenly.

Mikhail Kalugin, Director of the Fourth Department for CIS Countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told TASS that the idea follows earlier regional discussions involving Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.

“Its emergence was preceded by two years of painstaking work within the Russia-Azerbaijan-Armenia framework, specifically the Trilateral Working Group co-chaired by the deputy prime ministers,” Kalugin said.

He added that by 2023, the parties were close to launching the so-called “Megrin route,” which he said was intended to connect Armenian and Azerbaijani railways while enabling transit through southern Armenia to Nakhchivan.

Kalugin argued that Armenia’s current approach differs from earlier proposals.

“This is precisely what Armenia is now struggling so hard to achieve, relying on the ‘Trump Road.’ But the problem is that the Armenian-American initiative, unlike the ‘Meghri Route,’ does not automatically provide for a full-scale connection of the Armenian and Azerbaijani railway infrastructure,” he said.

He also suggested that Armenia had slowed earlier trilateral efforts.

“It is not our fault that Yerevan deliberately froze the work of the Trilateral Working Group in 2023,” Kalugin stated.

The Russian official raised concerns about external geopolitical dynamics, including relations involving Iran and the United States, as well as regional trade dependencies.

“A number of experts believe that, against the backdrop of the Iranian-US conflict, the prospects for launching the ‘Trump Road’ are far from clear,” he said, adding that “American control over the route from Central Asia to Europe… could also provoke mistrust among Asian partners.”

He further argued that the project’s economic viability could be uncertain without cargo flows from major regional players.

“And without Chinese and Russian cargo, it will be extremely difficult to recoup investments in the project,” Kalugin noted.

Kalugin also pointed to logistical and legal constraints, including the presence of Russian border guards on the Armenia-Iran frontier, railway infrastructure compatibility issues, and Armenia’s obligations within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). He referenced the concession held by South Caucasus Railway, valid until 2038, as another factor affecting implementation.

Discussing Russia’s broader role in the region, Kalugin said Moscow sees the South Caucasus as strategically important and advocates for regional stability and economic integration.

“We want the economy of the South Caucasus to breathe freely. This is in our interest... That is precisely why, in 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin made personal efforts to end the bloodshed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At that time, the foundations of the peace process between Baku and Yerevan were laid. The process has already gone through several phases, but it is still proceeding in line with the ‘roadmap’ developed on the basis of the 2020–2022 agreements between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia,” he noted. 

He also stated that Western involvement in the region is driven by geopolitical competition, while Russia prioritises long-term cooperation.

“I would like to emphasise that, despite its fine words, the West cannot and will not be able to replace Russia in the South Caucasus in the foreseeable future—neither in the security sphere nor in the economy. Our interests in the region, however, are unshakable,” Kalugin said.

By Sabina Mammadli