Sweden’s defence chief: If Putin moves on Narva, we will go to war

Sweden would defend “every inch” of NATO territory if Russia sought to test the Alliance by attacking Estonia, Defence Minister Pål Jonson has said, warning that Stockholm would honour its collective defence commitments without hesitation.

Speaking to the Polish media, Jonson said that if President Vladimir Putin attempted to seize the Estonian border town of Narva, Sweden would respond militarily under NATO’s Article 5.

“That is precisely what Alliance membership entails,” he said, noting that Swedish Gripen fighter jets had already been deployed to Poland and that a Swedish mechanised battalion is stationed in Latvia. In 2026, Sweden will take the lead role in NATO’s Forward Land Forces in Finland.

Jonson argued that Russia is not winning the war in Ukraine, despite incremental territorial gains. He said Moscow had captured just 0.7% of Ukrainian territory over the past year at the cost of more than 300,000 casualties, while failing to seize any major city or take full control of Donbas.

Russia’s economy, he added, is under mounting strain from deficits, dwindling reserves and pressure on the banking system.

The minister called for tougher sanctions, particularly targeting Russia’s energy revenues, and sustained military backing for Kyiv. Sweden will provide €4bn in support to Ukraine this year and the same amount in 2027, alongside broader European Union assistance.

Jonson dismissed suggestions that Europe needs a “Plan B” in case the United States scales back its role in NATO, expressing full confidence in Article 5 and US engagement in nuclear deterrence. However, he acknowledged that Washington expects European allies to assume greater responsibility for conventional defence.

He stressed that any definition of victory or peace terms must be determined by Ukraine. “If they want to regain all their territory, including Crimea, we will support them. If they choose negotiations, we will support that too,” he said, adding that strengthening Ukraine’s hand is essential to securing a just and lasting peace.

Since joining NATO in March 2024, Sweden has significantly deepened military cooperation with Poland, particularly in submarine defence and air security, as part of broader efforts to ensure NATO retains control of the Baltic Sea region.