The Economist: Global pressures mount for peace in Ukraine as 2025 approaches

As Ukraine endures its third winter of relentless Russian missile and drone attacks on critical infrastructure, there is a cautious hope that 2025 could mark a turning point, with both sides showing signs of fatigue and international pressure increasing, according to The Economist.

On February 24th, the war in Ukraine will enter its fourth year, marking another milestone in a devastating conflict that has claimed over 200,000 lives and left several hundred thousand more injured. 

Millions have been displaced, while Ukraine’s economy lies in tatters, facing an increasingly dire demographic crisis after the exodus of countless women and children. 

The war has deeply scarred the country, which now faces the challenge of rebuilding amidst widespread devastation.

For Ukraine, the prospect of a resolution is both distant and painful, but it may offer a way forward.

Russia has also suffered significant setbacks, with its economy hit hard by Western sanctions, a labour shortage exacerbated by President Vladimir Putin’s insatiable demand for soldiers, and a large number of Russians fleeing the country.

As of early November 2023, inflation in Russia had surged into double digits, interest rates were at a punishing 21%, and nearly 40% of the national budget was being consumed by military and security expenditure. While the Kremlin continues to silence dissent, there are signs that the Russian public, weary of the ongoing war, is growing disillusioned.

“The fighting could sharply ratchet down, even to a ceasefire,” says one observer, drawing a comparison to the ceasefire agreements of 2014, which, although not fully successful, marked a de-escalation of hostilities. In the West, particularly in Washington, securing a peaceful end to the conflict has become a priority for many, and this issue is expected to gain further traction under a new administration led by Donald Trump.

In the early part of 2024, American funding for Ukraine was temporarily halted as a result of political gridlock in Congress, with an exhausted spending package left unapproved. However, by mid-2025, a new $61bn support package will likely face the same fate of exhaustion, further exacerbating the strain on military supplies.

As the United States grapples with this diminishing aid capacity, there is growing recognition that Ukraine will need to forge new partnerships with countries like Israel and Taiwan to sustain its defence.

Europe, too, faces its own challenges in supporting Ukraine’s military needs. European governments have been slow to ramp up their defence production, and with the U.S. unable to maintain its previous levels of support, Ukraine will be left to rely increasingly on its own impressive defence industries, particularly in drone technology. However, these capabilities may not be enough to fully close the gap as Western supplies dwindle.

Despite these challenges, there is a growing recognition that peace talks may be on the horizon. “Pressure to enter some form of negotiations with Russia will greatly increase in 2025,” says one analyst, noting that the backers of both sides would prefer to see the conflict wind down.

A potential settlement could involve Ukraine accepting the loss of some territory, most likely the 7% of land Russia annexed in 2014, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas. Russia may also hold onto much, if not all, of the additional 11% of territory seized since the 2022 invasion.

In return for territorial concessions, Ukraine would likely demand strong security guarantees, with NATO membership being the most desirable option. However, under a Trump administration, NATO membership for Ukraine seems improbable for the foreseeable future. “It seems probable that Ukraine will not join NATO for years, if ever; but it might still at least get some form of security guarantee,” notes a diplomatic source.

As talks begin, there is hope that a ceasefire could emerge, setting the stage for a "semi-frozen" conflict. While such a resolution would be far from perfect, it would represent a significant step forward, offering Ukraine a chance to rebuild and ending the constant bloodshed that has defined the past years of war.

As 2025 approaches, the world waits for a potential turning point in the conflict, with both sides looking for a way to halt the devastation and move toward peace.

By Aghakazim Guliyev