Russia to shift forces toward NATO border after Ukraine peace deal, Finland warns

Russia is likely to redeploy its military forces toward NATO’s eastern flank once a peace settlement is reached in Ukraine, Petteri Orpo, Finland’s prime minister has warned, calling on the European Union to significantly increase financial support for frontline states.

Petteri Orpo said countries bordering Russia and Belarus are already bearing a disproportionate security and financial burden and need greater solidarity from the rest of the bloc as they rapidly expand their defence capabilities, Financial Times reports.

“We know that when there will be peace in Ukraine, Russia is still the threat. It’s obvious that they are going to move their military forces to near our border and near the Baltic border,” Orpo said. “It’s clear that we need financial support [from Brussels].”

Orpo will host the first eastern flank summit, bringing together eight countries with land or maritime borders with Russia and Belarus. The meeting will focus on adopting common military capabilities, including air defence systems, drones and land forces, as well as improving the movement of troops and weaponry across Europe.

Several NATO members have warned that Russia could be ready for a major confrontation with the alliance within three to five years after the fighting in Ukraine ends. In response, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland are on track to spend more than 5 per cent of GDP on defence next year — well above US President Donald Trump’s spending target — while other frontline states are also sharply increasing military budgets.

Orpo said Europe must be prepared to defend itself as the United States begins to scale back its security role on the continent. “We know that the US is going to decrease the support and participation in defence in Europe because they have many other security concerns,” he said.

Finland has long maintained a high level of readiness against Russia, preserving extensive bomb shelter networks, stockpiles of critical materials and broad-based defence training for both young people and elites. However, the country is also grappling with the effects of a decade-long economic downturn that has forced the government to cut public spending as debt rises.

“Our economy is in a very bad situation at this moment. It’s because of the threat from Russia. The atmosphere in Finland is very difficult,” Orpo said.

He added that eastern flank countries are seeking access not only to €1.5bn in unused EU funds for military projects, but also a significant share of the roughly €130bn earmarked for defence in the bloc’s next multi-year budget.

Orpo’s warning reflects growing concern among frontline states that a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv could prompt complacency among countries farther from Russia’s borders. He said the coming days would be crucial in demonstrating Europe’s resolve, as EU leaders gather for a high-stakes summit on December 18 that could determine whether Ukraine avoids financial collapse.

The meeting will address efforts to overcome Belgium’s resistance to using frozen Russian assets to support Kyiv, as well as a proposed trade deal with Latin American countries. Orpo said European leaders, led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, had worked hard to resolve Belgium’s objections.

“Now it’s time to make a decision,” he said.

Asked what would happen if the EU summit concluded without new financial backing for Ukraine, Orpo replied: “I don’t want to think about it. Because we don’t have any other options.”

By Vafa Guliyeva