Trump’s Brazil gamble backfires, boosting Lula’s popularity

A recent tactic by U.S. President Donald Trump to pressure Brazil through punitive tariffs appears to have backfired, weakening his political ally Jair Bolsonaro while politically revitalising President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Last week, Trump sent a letter to President Lula threatening to impose a 50% import tax on Brazilian goods, explicitly tying the move to Bolsonaro’s ongoing criminal trial, which he described as a “witch hunt.” In a follow-up letter addressed directly to Bolsonaro, Trump urged an end to the trial and said he had made his displeasure known through tariff policy.

Rather than derailing the trial, Trump’s intervention seemed to prompt Brazil’s Supreme Court to act more decisively. As the ABC broadcaster recalls, the day after the letters were publicised, federal police raided Bolsonaro’s home and political office on July 18. The former president was ordered to wear an ankle monitor, banned from social media, and subjected to additional restrictions, signalling a major escalation in his legal troubles.

While Bolsonaro faces growing judicial pressure, Lula — who had been struggling with falling approval ratings, legislative opposition, and uncertainty around his re-election chances — is experiencing an unexpected political rebound. The 79-year-old leftist leader, now in his third non-consecutive term, has regained momentum, with calls mounting for him to run again to "defend Brazil’s sovereignty."

In public appearances since Trump’s threat, Lula has projected renewed confidence. At a national student assembly, he donned a cap reading “Sovereign Brazil Unites Us,” a direct counterpoint to Trump’s iconic MAGA hat. “A gringo will not give orders to this president,” Lula declared, denouncing the tariff threat as “unacceptable blackmail.”

The episode echoes past instances in which Trump’s actions inadvertently boosted his ideological opponents abroad. Similar outcomes occurred in Canada and Australia, where his interventions led to a rise in popularity for rival leaders who had previously been on shaky political ground.

“Trump has put Lula back in the game,” said Thomas Traumann, a political analyst and former Brazilian presidential spokesman to the agency. “He handed it to Lula on a silver platter.”

Even Bolsonaro’s former vice president, Senator Hamilton Mourão, criticised Trump’s move as inappropriate interference, though he maintained that the legal case against Bolsonaro was politically biased. Meanwhile, Brazil’s powerful agribusiness sector — traditionally aligned with the right — strongly condemned the tariffs, with industry groups calling them politically driven and commercially unjustified.

Congressional leaders, some of whom had recently blocked Lula’s initiatives, shifted their stance in the wake of Trump’s announcement. They joined Lula in supporting retaliatory measures under Brazil’s reciprocity law and began advancing legislation previously stalled, including Lula’s proposal to cut income taxes for low-income Brazilians.

The ABC article argues that political landscape has shifted sharply in Lula’s favour, while Bolsonaro faces deepening legal peril. Brazil’s chief prosecutor has formally accused him of leading an armed criminal conspiracy and attempting to subvert democracy. The case now extends to Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, who resides in the US and is being investigated for allegedly collaborating with American officials to sanction Brazilian figures.

What Trump may have viewed as a bold gesture to defend a political ally has inadvertently strengthened Lula’s position at home, and as the article highlights, pushed Bolsonaro further into crisis.

By Nazrin Sadigova