UK’s intelligence: Ukraine manages to restore shipping in Black Sea

Ukraine has managed to restore shipping in the Black Sea.

Ukraine’s ports exported more agricultural products in December 2023 than at any other point since Russia’s invasion, almost certainly driven by the reopening of Ukraine’s main Black Sea ports and establishment of a unilateral shipping export channel, Caliber.Az reports citing the report of the UK’s Defence Ministry.

It has surpassed monthly volumes achieved during the UN- and Türkiye-brokered Black Sea grain Initiative which was subject to Russian inspections.

Ukraine has achieved this because it has largely prevented the Russian Black Sea Fleet from operating in the western Black Sea, where it is held at risk by Ukrainian missiles and uncrewed surface vessels. Market confidence is supported by the UK-brokered reduction in insurance premiums through the Unity Facility insurance package and the announcement that Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria have formed a naval mine countermeasures force.

The health of this export route is vital in the long term: both for Ukraine’s export revenue; and as a symbol that both sides are willing to suspend attacks on civilian shipping, paving the way to diminished risk and greater trade for all in the Black Sea.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 22 January 2024.

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