How US-Saudi treaty could transform regional defence

The article from Foreign Affairs delves into the potential US-Saudi defence treaty, emphasizing its strategic implications beyond immediate Middle Eastern conflicts. Initially perceived as part of a broader regional arrangement post-Hamas attacks, the treaty's foundations were laid prior to these events.

The author argues that the agreement is a pivotal step toward better integrating US partners in the Middle East, ultimately reducing direct American military involvement and allowing the US to reallocate its focus toward the Indo-Pacific, especially given the rising competition with China.

The article outlines three key benefits of the treaty. Firstly, it would strengthen US-Saudi ties, reinforcing one of America's critical partnerships while facilitating technological cooperation in areas like artificial intelligence and defence technology. This would not only limit Chinese influence but also promote US standards for data privacy and technology regulation in the region. Secondly, it would empower Saudi Arabia and its allies to handle regional crises independently, diminishing the US's burden in providing arms and intervention. The article notes that US arms sales to Saudi Arabia could become more strategically aligned with mutual interests rather than simply fulfilling transactional demands.

Lastly, the treaty could position Saudi Arabia to engage in global issues, thereby expanding its role beyond regional conflicts. As evidenced by Saudi Arabia's hosting of an international summit on the war in Ukraine, the kingdom seeks a greater global influence, which aligns with US interests in addressing transnational challenges.

However, the article also addresses potential risks, such as misaligned expectations regarding Saudi commitments and the unpredictability of US foreign policy. A successful treaty hinges on Saudi Arabia's normalization of relations with Israel, which would signal a strategic shift in its foreign policy, while the US must avoid impulsive diplomatic decisions that could undermine its partnerships.

In conclusion, the article argues that a US-Saudi defence treaty could not only enhance security cooperation in the Middle East but also facilitate a broader global diplomatic strategy, reducing the risk of a new cold war and fostering collaborative efforts to tackle emerging global challenges.

By Vugar Khalilov