US says drone strikes on Russia hurt fuel supplies but not power

Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure earlier this year disrupted 14 per cent of the country’s oil refining capacity and drove up domestic fuel prices, but had minimal impact on electricity output, the Pentagon’s intelligence agency said.

The loss of some Russian refining capacity pushed up domestic prices 20 per cent to 30 per cent by mid-March and triggered an export halt to focus on meeting domestic demand, according to an assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency, which was summarized in a report released by the inspector general overseeing US aid to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

“To mitigate the impact of these strikes, Russia banned gasoline exports for six months starting in March, began importing refined product from Belarus, planned to import from Kazakhstan, and prioritized shipments of petroleum products by Russian Railways, as opposed to other means of transportation,” the report said.

Ukraine, which relies on US-led foreign military and economic aid to fight Russia, has grown increasingly aggressive striking targets inside Russian territory. While the refinery attacks are designed to deplete fuel and export revenues for Putin’s armed forced, the US has criticized them as creating a risk to global oil prices.

While the attacks are still ongoing, the DIA analysis covers only a two-month period — from the first strike January 21, on Novatek PJSC’s Ust-Luga plant, until a March 24 attack on a power plant in Novocherkassk.

Attacks on power facilities “have resulted in a negligible disruption of electricity to the Russian military and civilian population” because “Russia has a robust generation capacity — the third largest in the world — and a high degree of redundancy in its grid.”

On Friday, Rosneft PJSC’s Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea was hit in one of Ukraine’s largest drone attacks in Russia. The refinery, which exports diesel and fuel oil, was off-line for three months after a late January attack and resumed operations only recently, according to industry data and information from the International Energy Agency.

Ukrainian strikes against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using unmanned naval drones “have changed Russian naval operating patterns,” the report said. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has begun avoiding the Ukrainian coast and moving some ships away from its main base in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, according to the report.

The assessment and data were contained in the latest quarterly report on US military and civilian aid to Ukraine from Pentagon Inspector Robert Storch.