Vietnamese farmers shift from coffee to durian

Coffee enthusiasts are facing a brewing crisis as prices for their beloved beverage surge to unprecedented levels.

Prices of 5 pounds in London or $7 in New York for a cup of coffee might seem extreme, but they could soon become the norm due to a "perfect storm" of economic and environmental issues affecting the world’s leading coffee-producing regions, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.  

Judy Ganes, an analyst, points out that the cost of unroasted coffee beans on the global market is now at an "all-time high." This surge in prices is attributed to a combination of problematic crops, market dynamics, dwindling stockpiles, and even the world's most pungent fruit.   How did we reach this point, and what will it mean for your daily latte?  

In 2021, an unexpected frost devastated coffee crops in Brazil, the largest global producer of Arabica beans used in specialty coffee. 

The shortage led buyers to seek beans from Vietnam, the leading producer of Robusta beans used in instant coffee. However, Vietnamese farmers were grappling with the worst drought in nearly a decade. Climate change has been impacting the growth of coffee plants, leading to reduced bean yields, according to Will Firth, a coffee consultant based in Ho Chi Minh City. In response, Vietnamese farmers have shifted to cultivating durian, a pungent yellow fruit that is banned on public transport in countries like Thailand, Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong due to its strong odor.  

Durian is gaining popularity in China, and Vietnamese farmers are replacing their coffee crops with this fruit to tap into the burgeoning market. Between 2023 and 2024, Vietnam's share of the durian market in China nearly doubled, with some estimates suggesting that durian is five times more profitable than coffee.   Mr. Firth notes that Vietnamese growers have a history of reacting to market fluctuations by overcommitting and then oversaturating the market with their new crop. As they flooded China with durian, Robusta coffee exports plummeted by 50 per cent in June compared to the previous year, and stocks are now "nearly depleted," according to the International Coffee Organisation.  

Exporters from Colombia, Ethiopia, Peru, and Uganda have increased their efforts, but their production has not been sufficient to alleviate the tight market. Ms. Ganes explains that the surge in demand for Robusta coincided with a scramble for additional supply, leading to near-record high trading prices for both Robusta and Arabica beans.