Will West respond to Russia's renewed nuclear threats?

Vladimir Putin has signaled a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear policy, warning that the country may resort to nuclear weapons if attacked with conventional arms.

This announcement comes amid concerns that Western allies might increase support for Ukraine, including the use of long-range missiles against Russian targets. Putin stated that a nuclear response would be triggered by "reliable information" of a large-scale aerial assault on Russia, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Historically, Russia has leveraged nuclear threats as a tactic to deter Western support for Ukraine. However, there are indications that these threats may be losing their effectiveness, as multiple “red lines” set by Moscow have been disregarded. Despite supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry, NATO maintains strict controls over their use, reflecting skepticism about Putin’s willingness to deploy nuclear weapons.

Nuclear deterrence relies on the credible threat of inflicting unacceptable damage on an adversary. NATO’s strategic concept emphasizes that nuclear weapons would only be used in extremely remote circumstances, yet warns that their use against a member state would fundamentally change any conflict involving NATO.

Putin's latest comments appear to signal a revision of Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear engagement. His initial threats emerged during the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories in September 2022, where he framed the US as a historical precedent for nuclear use.

By Vafa Guliyeva