World set for years of record heat, scientists warn 1.5°C Threshold Nears Tipping Point

Global temperatures are on track to keep smashing records in the years ahead, with a rising likelihood of deadly, extreme heat events, top climate agencies have warned.

In a five-year outlook published on May 28, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office projected an 80% chance that the Earth will experience yet another record-breaking year of heat between now and 2029, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

The data also suggest an increasing likelihood of breaching the internationally agreed threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — a critical target set under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The joint forecast draws on more than 200 climate model simulations from 10 global forecasting centres. It indicates a 70% probability that the five-year average temperature will exceed the 1.5°C limit, and an 86% chance that at least one year will individually surpass that level.

These projections mark a sharp increase from just a decade ago, when scientists believed the chance of breaching 1.5°C in any single year was around 1%. That threshold was crossed for the first time in 2023. Now, for the first time, researchers warn there is a slim but real possibility that global temperatures could reach the more alarming 2°C milestone before the decade ends — a level that had previously seemed more distant.

“This is shocking,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office. “It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that’s what the science is telling us.” His colleague, climate scientist Leon Hermanson, described the findings as a “wake-up call.”

From abstract numbers to real-world consequences

Although average global temperatures might appear as abstract statistics, their impact is becoming increasingly tangible. Each fraction of a degree of warming intensifies the risk of extreme weather events — including prolonged heatwaves, severe droughts, flooding, wildfires, and more destructive storms.

“Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but in real life, they translate to stronger hurricanes, heavier precipitation, and more frequent droughts,” said Natalie Mahowald, a climate scientist at Cornell University who was not involved in the study. “It means more lives lost.”

Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, warned that human-caused climate change is amplifying the intensity and frequency of disasters, including “heatwaves, droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes and typhoons.”

According to Chris Hewitt, WMO’s Director of Climate Services, the world is currently around 1.4°C warmer than it was in the mid-1800s, when global industrialisation began. Factoring in the expected heat over the next five years, the world could exceed the 1.5°C average threshold — not just momentarily, but persistently.

Escalating risks and irreversible trends

Rising temperatures are expected to escalate a host of environmental and human risks. Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the Met Office and Professor at the University of Exeter, warned that prolonged heatwaves could result in a higher death toll and increased pressure on health systems unless stronger protections are put in place.

The Arctic, in particular, remains a hotspot, warming at a pace more than three times faster than the global average. As a result, sea ice continues to retreat, and sea level rise is accelerating.

Scientists liken global temperature rise to moving up an escalator — a gradual upward trend occasionally punctuated by natural El Niño events, which cause short-term spikes. However, what’s concerning is that these spikes are no longer followed by cooling periods.

“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University.

By Aghakazim Guliyev