WSJ: Russia’s spring offensive underway as Ukraine faces mounting pressure

Russia has launched its spring offensive in Ukraine, taking advantage of the warming weather that has hardened the ground and reduced the visibility of Ukrainian drones due to emerging foliage, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 29.

The renewed assault coincides with growing pressure from US President Donald Trump, who is urging both Kyiv and Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, the article notes.

Trump has warned that if no deal is reached, the US may halt its support for Ukraine, posing a serious threat to the continued flow of military assistance to the country.

Although the Kremlin has announced a temporary ceasefire for early May, Ukrainian officials view the move as a publicity stunt. Past unilateral ceasefires declared by Russia have quickly collapsed, and Ukrainian leaders say this one is unlikely to be different.

According to Ukrainian troops and military analysts, Kyiv’s forces have succeeded in stabilising the front line in the east over the spring. While Russia was advancing by hundreds of square kilometres monthly in autumn 2024, its progress slowed drastically in April. In the first half of the month, Russian forces captured fewer than 100 square kilometres — the slowest rate of advance since summer 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). At the same time, Ukrainian forces have managed to regain portions of lost territory.

Despite these tactical gains, Ukraine now faces a critical challenge: maintaining its defences during the summer, a period traditionally marked by intensified fighting. Russian officials are working to portray their anticipated advances as inevitable, subtly pressuring Washington to push Kyiv toward surrender.

For now, the Russian offensive has yielded limited gains while inflicting heavy casualties. Analysts and Ukrainian military sources say Moscow is facing increasing difficulties, even as the improving weather may tilt the conditions in its favour.

ISW analyst George Barros pointed to the exhaustion of Russian forces, noting that some of the divisions currently attacking the eastern city of Pokrovsk have been engaged in combat without rotation for more than two years. “The only way out for them is to die,” Barros said of these units, highlighting the grinding nature of Russia’s offensive.

He added that Russia’s refusal to pause its combat operations has strained the army’s logistical system. Military hardware and supply lines are wearing down, while fresh recruits are poorly trained and insufficiently integrated into existing units—factors that reduce overall effectiveness on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been relying increasingly on drone warfare as a defensive strategy. Drones now form the first line of defence, with reconnaissance UAVS using thermal imaging to detect enemy movements, and strike drones targeting Russian troops before they can reach Ukrainian positions.

“This innovation allows Ukraine to hold vast sections of the front line with a surprisingly small number of soldiers,” said Barros. The tactic has been implemented along much of the eastern front, and it has proven effective in offsetting Russia’s manpower advantage.

However, that edge may soon diminish. As trees regain their leaves, the drones’ ability to identify targets will decline. In the northeastern regions, where vegetation is especially dense, Russian forces are likely to benefit from increased natural cover.

Complicating matters further for Ukraine is the end of the “mud season,” when wet ground prevents armoured vehicles from advancing. With drier conditions now prevailing, Russia has resumed mechanised assaults.

“They haven’t moved far and have taken enormous losses,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based defence analyst. “That’s a credit to the Ukrainian defence system.”

But Gady warned that Ukraine’s capacity to maintain this defence is not unlimited. Ammunition supplies, while currently sufficient, are being depleted. Without further support from the US, where aid is being held up in Congress, Ukraine could face artillery shortages in the months ahead.

“Ukrainians will have to reduce their rate of fire,” Gady explained. “And then even increased drone production won’t be enough to hold the front with so few troops.”

“I don’t expect a dramatic collapse of the front,” he added, “but the overall dynamics are unfavourable for Ukraine. At some point, drones won’t be able to make up for the lack of infantry.”

By Tamilla Hasanova