"Yerevan will have to align its ambitions with reality and wise up" Expert insights on Caliber.Az

Recent statements from Yerevan, regardless of their tone, suggest that Armenia is aiming to delay the signing of a peace agreement while preparing for a future escalation and attempt at revanche. This is further evidenced by Armenia's rapid rearmament. A clear sign that the peace process in the South Caucasus has once again stalled is the fact that, despite some optimism among analysts, a peace agreement remains unsigned by the end of 2024.

What will the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus look like in 2025? Will it be defined by a push for peace, or will Armenia's revanche-driven sentiments prevail? To provide insights, a Caliber.Az correspondent consulted with foreign political analysts and experts.

According to Nikolai Mezhevich, Doctor of Economics and Professor of the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University, the key to understanding the situation in the region can also be found in past French cinema.

“There was a French film called ‘Leave, While You Are Leaving’. In my opinion, it directly relates to what is happening in the Republic of Armenia: it seems to be leaving, but at the same time, it’s not. It takes certain steps that could be seen as strategically damaging relations with Russia, but at the same time, it doesn’t quite do that. Some of Armenia's concerns are understandable: it seems that there are people in Pashinyan’s circle who have read classical works on geopolitics or strategic theory. And these people certainly know that the factor of proximity is decisive in building relationships. Many cultures have good proverbs on this topic, such as the one that says a close neighbour is worth more than a distant relative. The historical complexity of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is well understood and obvious – many monographs have been written on this. However, Armenia’s relationship with Russia has been built on a different principle, at least it was positive. And Yerevan’s desire to spoil these relations at the very least raises questions,” noted the political scientist.

The next point, according to him, is that Yerevan should not be deluded, as the process of arming Armenia is highly limited. This is primarily because weapons are in demand in Europe, and there is not much left in countries like France, Germany, Greece, and others. Therefore, it is quite difficult to predict with certainty how Armenia will behave in 2025.

"It is clear, however, that very slowly, there will be an understanding that Armenia may be left in strategic isolation in the region. And this applies not only to Russia, but also to the subtleties of Armenia's relationship with Georgia. Therefore, I would still suggest that a lasting peace in the South Caucasus is unlikely to materialize in 2025," the political scientist stated.

On the other hand, he believes that the turbulence in the Middle East, the uncertain situation in Europe, and America's economic problems will divert the attention of major players away from the South Caucasus. In this regard, regional players will have an opportunity to reflect on how to engage with each other once again.

"In the end, history also offers this formula: 'never say never.' After all, there was once the Transcaucasian Federation. Of course, it's clear that the modern relations between the three countries of the region in the form of a federation are impossible, but some form of very cautious and gentle agreement could still be possible. Why am I confident about this? Because Azerbaijan has very clearly stated that it will protect and uphold its sovereignty, and Georgia is effectively fighting for its sovereignty right now – we can all see this in real-time. Against this backdrop, Armenia, which has delegated its sovereignty somewhere, does not seem entirely typical or reasonable. It is quite clear that sooner or later, Yerevan will have to align its ambitions with reality and wise up. Therefore, I really want to remain optimistic and wish peace, happiness, and prosperity to all the people living in the South Caucasus," concluded Mezhevich.

According to political scientist Sharip Ishmukhamedov from Kazakhstan, one must always remember the golden rule of military affairs – if you want peace, prepare for war.

"It is clear that striving for a peace agreement is necessary, but it would be extremely naïve to expect that such an agreement will halt Armenia's plans or curb its appetite for new territorial conquests of Azerbaijan or any neighbouring states. No matter how perfect a peace agreement might be in its postulates, Armenia will not abandon its expansionist plans and military-political provocations against its neighbours. Therefore, the recipe for peace is simple: Azerbaijan must consistently strengthen and develop its economic, political, and military power, while maintaining close cooperation with countries in the region. It is clear that to prevent war and Armenian provocations, which only poison the region, all of Azerbaijan's neighbours – Georgia, Russia, and Türkiye – must remain vigilant. Only by standing united can they make Yerevan realize that pursuing revanche and military aggression is ultimately not worth the risk," said Ishmukhamedov.