"Peace treaty with Azerbaijan will ensure Armenia's security" Russian pundit on Caliber.Az

The Armenian side continues to sound absurd accusations against Azerbaijan that Baku is allegedly "slowing down the peace process and imitating peacekeeping efforts". This circus is familiar to us and causes nothing but a sarcastic smile.

Here are some recent examples of statements by several representatives of the Armenian authorities. Thus, on December 4, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Mnatsakan Safaryan told journalists in the Armenian Parliament that "Azerbaijan has not yet responded to Armenia's proposals on the sixth version of the peace treaty. We will inform you when we receive an answer." 

However, of course, he kept silent about the fact that the draft peace treaty, based on five principles, submitted by the Azerbaijani side, had been mulled over by Armenia for almost a year, as well as about the fact that Yerevan delayed for two and a half months in responding to the next Armenian version of the document.

"The probability of signing the so-called "peace treaty" with Azerbaijan soon is extremely low, Baku wants to get everything" - this is already a pearl issued just recently by the head of the parliamentary faction of the opposition bloc "I have honour" Hayk Mamijanyan, who called "not to communicate with Baku without the participation of international mediators".

"In essence, Azerbaijan is seeking a second but already doubled capitulation from Armenia. Baku wants to exclude any international guarantees, both in terms of ensuring the rights and security of the "Artsakh residents" in case of their return and in terms of fulfilling the provisions of the peace treaty as a whole. In other words, Azerbaijan proposes to agree independently, by themselves and without mechanisms of international guarantees," the MP said on air of the Fifth TV Channel.

Armenia is completely oblivious to the risks of its unbridled desire to fool the whole world, to delay the signing of the peace treaty for as long as possible and to leave the United States and France to do whatever they wish, including their relations with Russia, entails. In such a scenario, there is a huge probability that the Armenian political train, which has taken a course towards the West and is actively running away from Russia, may derail almost at any second.

According to Russian political scientist Vladislav Gerdin, Armenia is walking on the edge of the abyss and does not even think about the fact that it may lose its sovereign status. In a conversation with Caliber.Az, he voiced his vision of the issue. 

It is difficult to say what exactly is wrong with the Armenian "kingdom-state", as well as with the specifics of its leaders - Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his team - but it is obvious that the Pashinyan administration has a habit of putting things "for later". This "for later" principle has led to the fact that Armenia has not yet emerged from isolation, has not signed a peace treaty, has not decided on its political security strategy, and has chosen the worst and most dangerous option for itself, which is a total confession of loyalty to the West. In return, Armenia received very vague promises, because the West cannot promise it anything. But, to all appearances, the assurances of friendship and friendly smiles of American officials turned Armenians' heads. They really believed that Western countries would solve all their problems for them, but they did not take into account the following fact: by doing so, they are breaking the long-term foundation of their existence on the geopolitical map of the world. The point is that Armenians do not realise the obvious axioms of the security structure in the South Caucasus region. The essence is as follows: Azerbaijan has established its status quo in the region through a strong policy, a powerful army and strategic cooperation with major regional actors - Türkiye and Russia, and states such as Israel and the UK. It is not by chance that Baku has two important documents in its portfolio - the Shusha Declaration with Türkiye and the Moscow Declaration with Russia.

Georgia has its own dialogue with the EU and its own relations with Russia, which, despite all the past negativity, are now at a much better stage than the relations between Yerevan and Moscow.

Armenia, on the other hand, is, as they say, "poor as a church mouse" at the moment. Yerevan has no clear strategic relations either with the major actors in the region or with extra-regional players. And in a situation when the interests of external forces collide with the interests of major regional states right on the territory of Armenia, the sovereignty of this country is directly threatened," the Russian political scientist stressed.

In his opinion, signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan will ensure Armenia's security in the region. Otherwise, catastrophe awaits it.

"By signing a peace treaty with Baku, Yerevan will automatically secure Azerbaijan's and Türkiye recognition of its territorial integrity. Therefore, all statements by Armenian politicians that Baku can allegedly threaten Yerevan in some way are nonsense. The very fact of signing a peace treaty cancels out all Armenian fears and concerns. But Iran, another major actor in the region, on which Armenia relies so much, can be absolutely unpredictable for Armenians, especially against the background of Yerevan's flirtation with Tehran's most sworn enemies - the EU and the US. To protect itself and realise perfectly well that Armenia is left without real patrons in the region, Iran is quite capable of serious escalation with Armenia, "seizing" many territories in the south as a buffer zone for security. This is what Armenians need to worry about, rather than inviting Western countries to come and use them as international mediators in negotiations with Azerbaijan", Gerdin added.