“Pashinyan dances to the tune of the West and follows its instructions”
    Expert insight

    INTERVIEWS  19 June 2024 - 14:42

    Matanat Nasibova
    Caliber.Az

    Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert Sergey Borovikov, a leading analyst of the Association for Cross-Border Cooperation.

     - Armenian Prime Minister announced recently that the country will leave the  Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Do you think this is the final decision of the Armenian authorities or is Yerevan testing the waters to gauge Moscow's reaction?

    - Nikol Pashinyan is currently only announcing plans to leave the CSTO, without setting any concrete deadlines. Therefore, it is likely a kind of trial balloon, PR, and an attempt to irritate Russia, and nothing more. At the same time, I believe it is also a way to test the waters to study the reaction within Armenia itself.

    - Looking a bit ahead, if Armenia does leave the military bloc, will this be followed by the withdrawal of the Russian base from Gyumri, an exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and so on?

    - I think systemic pressure on the Russian base in Gyumri will persist as long as Pashinyan remains in power and continues his pro-Western policy. As for Armenia leaving the EAEU, that is unlikely at this stage, since Armenian businesses are heavily invested in this integration and are unlikely to be pleased with such a rash move by the Armenian authorities.

    - The recent visit of US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien to Yerevan confirmed that Armenia has begun implementing Western instructions received on April 5 in Brussels at the EU-US-Armenia trilateral meeting. Does this mean that after Yerevan and Washington agreed to enhance their strategic partnership, American military bases could appear in Armenia?

    Pashinyan has long been dancing to the tune of the West and following its instructions. Nevertheless, everything is currently held together by words and PR. The US is already militarily entangled in Ukraine and Israel, not to mention the approaching issue with Taiwan. Therefore, the Americans are not in a position to focus on Armenia and establishing military bases there.

    - How do you assess the likelihood of Armenia joining the EU in the medium term?

    - In neither the medium nor long term is it possible for Armenia to join the EU for several reasons. Firstly, Armenia does not share borders with the EU, and it is entirely unclear how they would interact with open markets. Secondly, the changing internal political situation in the EU, particularly the sharp shift to the right following the recent European Parliament elections, gives Armenia little hope in this matter. The EU has been promising Türkiye membership for fifty years without delivering, so Armenia's chances are even slimmer.

    - Will Nikol Pashinyan decide to amend the Constitution of Armenia to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan?

    - Pashinyan says and signs what the West dictates to him, but he cannot change the constitution with a single stroke of the pen. For this, he needs the support of broad parliamentary forces and adherence to certain procedures, which are not easily organized on Western command. Therefore, the issue of revising the constitution is postponed indefinitely. Given the active protests against Pashinyan within Armenia, it will be difficult for him to change the constitution under such conditions.

    - How do you see the future of Armenian-Russian relations?

    - In the long term, it will depend on the geopolitical situation and the West. However, in the medium term, it is unlikely that Armenia can exist without Russia. I believe Armenian-Russian relations will be restored in some form, but certainly not under Nikol Pashinyan's regime.

    Caliber.Az

    Subscribe to our Telegram channel


Read also

"Insult to American intellect" Analyst on democrats’ denial of Biden's health concerns

22 July 2024 - 14:48

Armenia - untrustworthy partner for any nation globally Expert insights on Caliber.Az

22 July 2024 - 10:24

Azerbaijan's stand against neo-colonialism garners global attention Political analysts laud Baku's diplomatic initiative

21 July 2024 - 12:27

Foreign influence undermines Armenia's sovereignty Expert opinions

20 July 2024 - 13:29

“Armenia will turn into an EU colony” Expert insights on Caliber.Az

20 July 2024 - 11:46

Armenia: A pawn of external influence in the South Caucasus Pundit assesses destabilizing factors in the region

18 July 2024 - 15:10
ADVERTS
Video
Latest news

    US political turmoil stalls sanctions relief talks with Iran, says diplomat

    22 July 2024 - 18:57

    Azerbaijan slams EU military aid to Armenia, warns of rising regional tension

    22 July 2024 - 18:41

    Germany's FM backs stationing of missiles in country to address Russian threat

    22 July 2024 - 18:39

    Hungary, Slovakia seek European Commission's intervention in oil transit dispute

    22 July 2024 - 18:25

    Israel confirms deaths of hostages held by Hamas

    PHOTO

    22 July 2024 - 18:10

    Trump’s vice-presidential pick Vance stirs alarm in Europe

    What’s behind the panic?

    22 July 2024 - 18:05

    US deploys strategic bombers to Romania for enhanced NATO integration

    22 July 2024 - 17:55

    US, Japanese, South Korean ministers to discuss growing threats from North Korea

    22 July 2024 - 17:41

    Five presidents, 10 Speakers to attend Iran president-elect's inauguration

    22 July 2024 - 17:37

    Trump vs. Biden: Accelerating or freezing the Ukraine conflict?

    In the footsteps of a real strategy

    22 July 2024 - 17:34

    Iranian leader accuses nations that impose sanctions under false pretenses

    PHOTO

    22 July 2024 - 17:23

    Lithuanian president appoints new prime minister

    Instructs to form government

    22 July 2024 - 17:08

    Azerbaijan’s strategic pivot: Analyzing the impact of new alliance with China

    Baku’s shifting ties: A challenge to Western influence?

    22 July 2024 - 16:54

    Economic impacts of new immigration restrictions

    Caliber.Az on YouTube

    22 July 2024 - 16:45

    US and EU attempt to maintain influence over Armenia through grants, says analyst

    22 July 2024 - 16:40

    Türkiye continues to eliminate terrorists in Syria, Iraq

    VIDEO

    22 July 2024 - 16:27

    Azerbaijani Air Force pilots honing combat skills

    Sky training success/VIDEO

    22 July 2024 - 16:12

    Azerbaijan clears over 1,600 ha of mines, explosive ordnance in liberated lands

    Weekly data

    22 July 2024 - 15:59

    Armenia playing role of pawn in someone else’s game

    Obvious hypocrisy of Yerevan and its patrons

    22 July 2024 - 15:45

    Unpacking Türkiye’s role in Africa

    New partner vs old enmity

    22 July 2024 - 15:31

    Kremlin: NATO military expansion poses threat to Russia

    22 July 2024 - 15:17

    MP: Armenia's state debt exceeds $12 billion

    22 July 2024 - 15:03

    "Insult to American intellect"

    Analyst on democrats’ denial of Biden's health concerns

    22 July 2024 - 14:48

    New Caledonia: Kanaks to continue struggle for independence

    Article by The Diplomat

    22 July 2024 - 14:46

    Western Azerbaijan Community Spokesperson highlights historical injustices

    In webinar with US Global Policy Institute

    22 July 2024 - 14:33

    Baku Initiative Group pledges support to Dutch colonies

    22 July 2024 - 14:18

    Russian pundit: West trying to interfere in South Caucasus affairs through Armenia

    22 July 2024 - 14:03

    German diplomats brace for potential Trump return as Biden bows out of 2024 race

    22 July 2024 - 13:49

    Georgian chairman claims EU funds hidden in opposition support

    22 July 2024 - 13:35

    Armenia receives €10-million defence aid from EU

    22 July 2024 - 13:22

    Russian engineers develop pocket-sized drone suppressor

    22 July 2024 - 13:10

    CEC: Over 1,000 hopefuls keen to join parliamentary race in Azerbaijan

    22 July 2024 - 12:58

    Iranian, Russian navies launch major Caspian Sea drills

    22 July 2024 - 12:46

    Philippines, China reach agreement to ease tensions at disputed shoal

    22 July 2024 - 12:34

    North Ossetia enforces restrictions as over 2,000 trucks wait to cross Russian-Georgian border

    22 July 2024 - 12:21

    Western Azerbaijan Community calls on Armenia to adhere to international law

    22 July 2024 - 12:09

    Harris campaign shatters fundraising records with $47 million surge after Biden’s withdrawal

    22 July 2024 - 11:57

    Armenian political stability at risk due to Biden dependency, says analyst

    22 July 2024 - 11:45

    US, UK launch airstrikes on Yemen's province

    22 July 2024 - 11:33

    Gas explosion rocks alcoholic beverages store in Russia’s Krasnodar

    22 July 2024 - 11:20

All news