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A model for how the West can support Ukraine? Israel. Opinion by The Washington Post
24 June 2023 01:03
According to the article written by the editorial board of the Washington Post, the United States should sign a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine which should be buttressed by a congressional resolution, which might also specify conditions holding Ukraine to account through mechanisms ensuring the transparency and scrutiny of the aid it receives.
The truism that deterrence is cheaper than war has been proved again in the case of Ukraine. There, in just 16 months, the United States — to say nothing of its Western allies — has already committed more than $46 billion in military aid to help Kyiv repel Russia’s pitiless invasion. By contrast, the cost of Washington’s effort to supply Israel with state-of-the-art weaponry to dissuade potential aggressors is a bargain, at $38 billion over the current 10-year program.
Full NATO membership is not in the cards for Ukraine, at least for now. With the war raging, granting Ukraine membership — with its nuclear-backed guarantee that an attack on any member will be met with a response from all — could trigger a full-blown showdown between the alliance and Moscow. That’s a nonstarter for the Biden administration and some key allies, notably Germany.
So the West needs another strategy for deterring further Russian aggression after the smoke clears from the current conflagration. High-level talks are underway to shape such a deal, impelled by the understanding that the Russian menace will not disappear anytime soon. Moscow’s forces might look ragged for the time being, but Russian dictator Vladimir Putin or any plausible successor could rearm and reassert a threat after any pause in fighting.
“Precisely because we have no illusions about Putin’s aspirations,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, rightly, this month, “we believe the prerequisite for meaningful diplomacy and real peace is a stronger Ukraine — capable of deterring and defending against any future aggression.”
That means the West needs to prepare itself for a long-term commitment systematically to arm, train and share intelligence with Ukraine — an expensive project, no doubt, but a new war would cost the West much more.
Kyiv has surprised the world not just by repelling Mr. Putin’s invasion but also by putting Russia’s vastly more numerous forces on the defensive even before the West poured top-shelf weaponry into the fight. It has earned its allies’ trust and confidence, along with the recognition that providing Ukraine with ongoing and deepening means of defense is critical.
Israel provides an instructive example. The United States extends Israel no formal security guarantee — no promise to intervene with troops in the event the Jewish state is attacked — but has provided it with a bespoke arsenal of advanced weaponry for decades.
In the case of protecting Ukraine, Washington is wisely proceeding with a coalition of allies — one that would certainly involve major European countries whose own security is jeopardized by Moscow’s neo-imperialist fever dream. Along with the Biden administration, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are weighing long-term security options, along with others on the continent. The deal need not be exclusively transatlantic. Japan, Australia and other powers also have an interest in security and stability in Europe.
Short of a ratified treaty, no guarantee will be as ironclad as Ukraine would like and deserves, given the sacrifice it has made and the broader burden of European security it has assumed. Nonetheless, the West can and should take steps to enfold its security cooperation with Ukraine — whose terms in dollars and weapons systems could be spelled out in detail — in a political and legal framework. As in the case of Tel Aviv, the United States should sign a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine. That should be buttressed by a congressional resolution, which might also specify conditions holding Ukraine to account through mechanisms ensuring the transparency and scrutiny of the aid it receives.
Neither an MOU nor a congressional resolution would be binding but both would signal seriousness of intent. Critically, so would sustained increases in the defense budgets of major European powers. Among them, only Britain now meets NATO’s goal of devoting 2 percent of total annual economic output to military spending, a benchmark agreed to by the alliance’s members in 2014.
Reaching that minimum benchmark, along with an explicit long-term commitment to Ukraine’s defense, is the key to persuading Mr. Putin to reassess his calculus that time remains Russia’s ally and to rid him of the assumption that “Ukraine fatigue” will eventually subvert the West’s resolve. The Russian tyrant is counting on knees buckling in Washington and across Europe, as the war drags on. It is incumbent on the Biden administration and Ukraine’s other allies to demonstrate that they cannot be outlasted.
Neither an MOU nor a congressional resolution would be binding but both would signal seriousness of intent. Critically, so would sustained increases in the defense budgets of major European powers. Among them, only Britain now meets NATO’s goal of devoting 2 percent of total annual economic output to military spending, a benchmark agreed to by the alliance’s members in 2014.
Reaching that minimum benchmark, along with an explicit long-term commitment to Ukraine’s defense, is the key to persuading Mr. Putin to reassess his calculus that time remains Russia’s ally and to rid him of the assumption that “Ukraine fatigue” will eventually subvert the West’s resolve. The Russian tyrant is counting on knees buckling in Washington and across Europe, as the war drags on. It is incumbent on the Biden administration and Ukraine’s other allies to demonstrate that they cannot be outlasted.
Caliber.Az
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