Armenian expert: US ceases deterrent role in South Caucasus

Armenian political analyst Suren Sargsyan has asserted that the United States has ceased to be a deterrent and balancing factor in the South Caucasus, offering a critical analysis of Washington's diminished role in the region.

In a recent social media post, Sargsyan commented on the phone conversation between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggesting that no significant diplomatic activity should be expected from the US in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process moving forward, Caliber.Az reports.

Sargsyan noted that historically, the United States had played a balancing role in the South Caucasus due to its soft power, its strategic importance within NATO, and its rivalry with Moscow. However, these factors, according to the political scientist, are no longer present, and Washington's influence in the region has waned.

“I wouldn’t rush to claim that the US will start engaging in the South Caucasus or act as a mediator in the signing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement based on just one phone call,” Sargsyan said, suggesting that any potential diplomatic efforts from the US may be unlikely.

The political scientist emphasized that new geopolitical realities are shaping the region, and Armenia's future trajectory will largely depend on the development of relations between the US and Iran. Sargsyan acknowledged that a possible mediation by former US President Donald Trump could emerge, but cautioned that there are many variables that would influence such a scenario.

By Vugar Khalilov