Axios: US unfazed by oil shock risk as it weighs longer fight with Iran

The administration of US President Donald Trump is preparing for the possibility of a military exchange with Iran lasting several days or even weeks as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise, Axios reports.

According to the report, the duration and scale of the campaign will depend on whether Iran continues attacking merchant vessels transiting the strategic waterway.

Sources said that the White House believes the United States has greater room to escalate because hundreds of oil tankers have continued to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via an alternative route near the coast of Oman in recent weeks.

The continued flow of shipping has also eased concerns within the administration over a potential spike in global oil prices in the event of renewed hostilities, the report said.

According to one US official, the latest escalation stems from frustration among segments of Iran's leadership, who believe the memorandum of understanding signed with Washington has failed to deliver the benefits Tehran had expected.

The official added that Iran has also struggled to increase oil exports despite a partial easing of US sanctions, as financial institutions have been reluctant to process related transactions and many countries have been hesitant to use temporary sanctions waivers. Frozen Iranian assets have likewise remained inaccessible because Tehran has not fulfilled some of its commitments under agreements related to its nuclear program.

"Part of the Iranian leadership was unhappy with all this... They started shooting, and we decided it was time to push back. It is a process. We have patience. If we feel we are not getting the deal we want, we are not going to make it," the US official said.

Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding remotely on June 18, under which the United States allowed Iran to resume oil exports and eased sanctions, while Tehran pledged to ensure safe navigation between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman for a 30-day period.

On the same day, US Central Command announced that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had been permanently lifted.

However, tensions resurfaced after a Singapore-flagged commercial cargo ship was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz near the Omani coast. The incident was initially attributed to an "unknown projectile," but US officials later identified it as an Iranian drone.

The US military responded on June 26 by launching strikes against Iranian military targets.

On June 27, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had shelled locations hosting US troops in the Middle East and warned that Tehran's response would be "even more massive" if American strikes continued.

According to the report, Iran attacked three commercial vessels with drones and anti-ship cruise missiles on July 7. In response, Washington revoked the license permitting Iranian oil exports and carried out a new wave of strikes against Iranian military targets overnight on July 8.

The latest operation was several times larger than previous strikes and that President Trump personally approved the attack plan during the NATO summit in Türkiye.

By Vafa Guliyeva