Bloomberg: Europe’s defences risk faltering within weeks without US support

The recent analysis by Bloomberg based on the assessment of defence officials states that Europe’s front-line defences could hold off a Russian invasion for only weeks without US support due to shortages in troops, air defences, and ammunition.

Despite recent efforts to bolster military spending, the continent remains heavily dependent on US intelligence, logistics, and strategic leadership.

Following the Cold War, Europe significantly disarmed, misjudging the threat posed by Russia. Even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, European leaders struggled to pivot. The reliance on the US remains deep, with European NATO members unable to fully replace American military capabilities.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has heightened concerns. He halted US arms supplies to Ukraine, reduced intelligence-sharing, and opposed American troop involvement in a peacekeeping mission. He also warned that the US would not defend NATO members failing to meet spending targets. Although a full US withdrawal from NATO is unlikely, a reduction in troop presence by over 20% is expected.

The EU plans to extend €150 billion in loans and permit an additional €650 billion in defence spending. Germany and the UK are also ramping up military budgets. However, beyond money, replacing US support in logistics, intelligence, and weapons systems could take over five years. Europe lacks critical production capacity, with ammunition shortages possible within days of a conflict.

Europe faces a shortage of as many as 100,000 combat personnel. Germany’s military remains under-strength, while France and the UK are expected to provide nuclear deterrence. Ukraine, now reliant on European military aid, possesses a large army and drone warfare expertise that its allies lack.

Europe’s ability to quickly move troops and equipment remains a challenge. Regulatory obstacles and infrastructure issues hinder rapid deployment. The Baltics, vulnerable to Russian aggression, rely on outdated Soviet-era rail systems, complicating military logistics.

While the Trump administration has reaffirmed its commitment to NATO, the alliance expects a recalibration of US forces. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is actively working to maintain transatlantic ties. European nations, including Poland, Finland, and the UK, are coordinating efforts to strengthen their defences, anticipating that Russia could reconstitute its military capabilities within three years.

Europe’s rearmament effort is expected to eventually need hundreds of billions of euros more. But after years of underinvestment and decades of reliance on the US, more than money is required to shore up Europe’s security. Replacing the array of support that the US provides — from logistics and intelligence to weapons systems — could take more than five years, the experts said.

By Tamilla Hasanova