Bloomberg: Hormuz blockade splits Gulf economies into winners and losers

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the economic landscape among Gulf oil exporters, creating clear winners and losers across the region.

Saudi Arabia and Oman are benefiting from the disruption, while the United Arab Emirates and several other producers face declining revenues.

According to Goldman Sachs, cited by Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia has managed to offset reduced shipments through Hormuz by rerouting up to 4 million barrels per day via its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. Higher global oil prices have more than compensated for the disruption, lifting Saudi weekly oil revenue by about 10% compared to pre-war levels.

Oman, whose export terminals lie outside the strait, has avoided disruptions entirely, with oil revenues surging by 80% since the conflict began in late February.

By contrast, the UAE has been hit by reduced export capacity. Although it increased flows through its own bypass pipeline to around 2 million barrels per day in March, this remains roughly half of February's levels. Goldman estimates that UAE oil revenues have fallen by about 25%.

Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq are in the weakest position, lacking alternative export routes and suffering sharp declines in oil and gas income.

The divergence is contributing to regional tensions, with the UAE’s recent decision to leave OPEC reflecting friction with Saudi Arabia. Once Hormuz reopens, Abu Dhabi is expected to increase output without quota constraints.

The broader economic impact is severe. Goldman estimates Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are losing around $700 million in oil revenue daily due to the closure, potentially reaching $80 billion after two months. Brent crude has surged above $126 per barrel, driven by the near shutdown of a route that previously carried about 20% of global oil exports.

Beyond oil, the conflict has damaged infrastructure and weakened tourism across the Gulf. Fiscal balances have deteriorated sharply, with deficits widening in several states, while borrowing needs have doubled to $3.5 billion per week.

Saudi Arabia remains relatively resilient, with Saudi Aramco expected to report quarterly profits of around $32 billion, supported by higher prices.

By Tamilla Hasanova