Can Ukraine still win the war against Russia?

In a sweeping, sharply argued article, Foreign Affairs dismantles the idea that Ukraine’s war against Russia is a lost cause—despite stalled diplomacy, battlefield attrition, and growing Western fatigue. The article responds to the Trump administration’s early-2025 promise to deliver a “24-hour peace deal,” exposing this rhetoric as more political theatre than policy. While early-year expectations of a quick resolution—echoed by institutions like JPMorgan Chase—have faded, the analysis insists that Ukrainian victory remains achievable, provided the West acts decisively and with unity.

The core message is clear: the notion that Ukraine cannot win has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, sustained by two flawed assumptions. First, that Ukraine’s strategic position is deteriorating beyond recovery. Second, that Vladimir Putin’s commitment to conquest is absolute and unshakable. Both, the article argues, are demonstrably false. It draws on a compelling list of Ukrainian battlefield successes—from the defence of Kyiv in 2022 to the bold Operation Spiderweb in 2025—to show how innovation, asymmetric tactics, and resilience have repeatedly thwarted Russian advances, despite limited Western support.

A central failure, the article contends, lies in the West’s half-hearted application of economic warfare. Sanctions, export controls, and SWIFT removals were introduced with fanfare but diluted through exemptions and loopholes. Russia’s economy even grew in 2023–2024, a fact used by some to argue the futility of economic pressure. But Foreign Affairs flips this view: the sanctions failed not because economic pressure doesn’t work, but because the “dose” was too weak. Bolder steps—such as fully seizing $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort—could change the calculus.

Additionally, the article calls for deeper military-industrial cooperation: not just arms deliveries, but co-production agreements, tech transfers, and logistics autonomy. This would allow Ukraine to build a sustainable defence ecosystem, closer to NATO standards, and less dependent on inconsistent foreign timelines. Economic pressure must also be globalised. China, now Russia’s main supplier of dual-use tech, is a linchpin in Moscow’s war strategy. Yet Europe, which holds real leverage through trade ties with Beijing, has shied away from tougher action.

Ultimately, Foreign Affairs proposes that victory—defined as Ukraine preserving its sovereignty, integrating with NATO and the EU, and deterring future aggression—is still within reach. It won’t look like a Hollywood-style treaty signing. More likely, it will resemble a Korean-style armistice, achieved by shifting battlefield momentum and making continued war unsustainable for the Kremlin.

The question, the article concludes, is not whether Ukraine can win, but whether the West—especially Europe—has the political courage to help it do so.

By Vugar Khalilov