Changes in Ukraine's war map have averted threat to Moldova, expert says Dmitry Ciubasenco in touch with Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az had an interview with Moldovan politician, "Our Party" presidential candidate for the 2016 elections Dmitry Ciubasenco.

- The other day, the Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, called for the withdrawal of the Russian military from Transnistria and for the liquidation of the ammunition warehouse of the Soviet period. How realistic it is today, taking into account that similar initiatives of the Moldavian authorities were unsuccessful in the past?

- The statement of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Nicu Popescu is a standard, routine demand made by the Moldovan delegation at the annual ministerial meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). It reflects Moldova's overall official position on Russian troops and armaments in Transnistria. The status of various categories of Russian military personnel in the region outside of Chisinau's control (a figure of 1,200 to 1,500 has been named) is not equal for everyone.

Some of them are involved in the trilateral Moldovan-Transnistrian-Russian peacekeeping forces, created in accordance with the Agreement on the principles of peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in the Transnistrian region of Moldova on July 21, 1992. This agreement, signed by the then presidents of the two countries, Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin, has the force of an international treaty and an official UN document.

The other part is the remnants of the former Soviet army stationed in the region, now called the Restricted Group of Russian Forces. This military personnel is mainly engaged in guarding armament and ammunition depots near the village of Kolbasna, which were exported from former Warsaw Pact countries. Initially, 40,000 tons of arms and ammunition were stored there, and over 30 years half of them were either removed to Russia or disposed of locally with the assistance of the OSCE. After the failure to sign in 2003 a plan to settle the Transnistrian problem on the basis of the federalization of Moldova (the so-called "Kozak Memorandum"), the process of liquidation of these warehouses came to a standstill.

Negotiations on the Transnistrian settlement, which are conducted in the "5+2" format (Moldova and Transnistria are parties to the conflict, Russia, Ukraine and OSCE are mediators, and the EU and the USA are observers) are also practically completely frozen. Against the background of the war in Ukraine and unfriendly (to put it mildly) relations between the mediators and observers themselves, any kind of settlement is out of the question. Everyone is concerned only with preserving the current relative calm and preventing the armed conflict from spreading from Ukraine to Transnistria and Moldova. The fence of the arms depots in Kolbasna runs, in fact, along the state border between Moldova and Ukraine. It is impossible to imagine how these weapons, which are Russian property, could be transported there through Ukrainian territory. On-site disposal is also unrealistic, given how degraded relations between the OSCE (and Europe as a whole) and Russia have become. Therefore, since such a scenario, at least under current conditions, is completely unrealizable, the status quo will most likely continue, accompanied by the political and diplomatic rhetoric of the parties.

- What aim does NATO pursue in rearming Moldova?

- Both NATO and the European Union provide military assistance to Moldova. After February 24, these organizations act practically as one in the region. In June, Moldova received the status of a country-candidate member of the European Union. The EU has a common foreign and defenсe policy and a common security policy. The candidate country is obliged to adhere to the principles of such a policy.

In October, NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana explicitly said that "NATO and the EU will continue to coordinate closely to ensure that the assistance provided by the two organizations in support of democratic reforms and modernization of Moldova's security and defence sector is complementary".

NATO has approved a "Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative" for Moldova that converts the country's armed forces and security structures, formally constitutionally neutral, to North Atlantic Alliance standards.

In November, the EU approved a program to develop dual-purpose infrastructure in the East, including in Moldova and Ukraine, for the accelerated redeployment of military forces and weapons of the EU states (actually NATO). So far NATO and the EU are not supplying Moldova with lethal weapons, limiting themselves to military education and training, improvement of command and logistics, and development of engineering and medical units. Representatives of NATO and the EU state that no one is interested in the war in Ukraine spilling over into the territory of Moldova, but at the same time the Western partners of Chisinau are actively engaged in the development of the territory of Moldova. I believe they do it in order to be ready for a potential confrontation with Russia (if it suddenly turns into an acute phase in Moldova as well), including as a result of the unfreezing of the Transnistrian conflict.

- Do you allow Moldova's withdrawal from the 1992 agreement on the principles of peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in the region?

- Today no one is interested in the denunciation of the agreement of 1992. In the absence of any agreement on the peaceful settlement of the conflict and against the background of the war on neighboring Ukraine's territory, it would mean not only an inevitable return of Moldova to the internal armed conflict of 30 years ago but also its involvement in the regional war. And with completely unpredictable consequences for the Moldovan statehood itself, up to the complete collapse of the country with the annexation of its Bessarabian part to Romania and an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the other Transnistrian part.

- How long do you estimate the war in Ukraine will last?

- It is difficult to say how the war in Ukraine will end. The prospect of an early end to the war, unfortunately, is not yet in sight. A military victory for any side looks unrealistic.

- Has the current change on Ukraine's war map averted the threat of military actions on the territory of Moldova?

- I suppose so far, yes.

- Does the threat of nuclear war seem to remain?

- In the past, nuclear deterrence was based on fear of annihilation. Many of today's politicians have no such fear. It's as if they don't understand what the consequences of actually using nuclear weapons might be. For them, it's like a computer game. If there is no fear, deterrence does not work. We can only hope that the nuclear button doesn't fall into the hands of such madmen who don't know what they are doing.