Desalination plants could emerge as new battleground in regional conflict

While global attention remains focused on rising energy prices driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, another critical vulnerability is emerging in the Gulf: water security. Recent limited strikes on desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain have highlighted the risks if such infrastructure were to be deliberately and systematically targeted.

Countries across the Middle East face arid conditions and chronic water shortages, relying heavily on desalination to convert seawater into drinking water. An analysis by the Atlantic Council think-tank notes that without this technology, roughly 100 million people in the region would lack consistent access to potable water.

There are around 5,000 desalination plants in the Middle East, including more than 400 in the Gulf. However, production is highly concentrated, with over 90% of desalinated water in the Gulf coming from just 56 facilities. Their concentration and proximity to Iran make them particularly vulnerable as missile and drone exchanges intensify.

Dependence on desalinated water is especially high in Gulf states: it accounts for around 90% of supply in Kuwait and Bahrain, approximately 86% in Oman, 80% in Israel, about 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the United Arab Emirates. This makes such infrastructure a potential strategic target in times of conflict.

Recent attacks highlight risks

Incidents in early March have already demonstrated the dangers. On March 7 and 8, desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain were struck. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of targeting a facility in Iran, while Bahrain’s interior ministry said an Iranian drone hit one of its plants, affecting water supplies in up to 30 villages. Kuwait and the UAE have also reported missile-related damage to similar facilities.

While the article notes that it remains unclear whether all the strikes were deliberate, the strategic importance of desalination plants and their proximity to Iran could make them increasingly attractive targets if hostilities continue. The Atlantic Council warns that major damage to such infrastructure could have cascading effects, disrupting water supplies to homes, businesses, agriculture, and public services, while also impacting electricity grids linked to desalination systems.

Iran's domestic water situation

Iran itself is facing mounting water stress. The country is currently in its fifth consecutive year of drought. While it is less dependent on desalination than some Gulf states, damage to its existing facilities would still have wide-reaching consequences.

Efforts to repair or expand desalination capacity are further constrained by international sanctions and rising energy costs, which limit access to technology and funding.

Shielding critical infrastructure

To date, international humanitarian and water laws have not consistently protected civilian water infrastructure, as seen in conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. The Gulf has also experienced such threats before. During Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, desalination plants were targeted, and it took years to restore them.

Since 2006, Gulf countries have invested more than $53 billion in desalination infrastructure, alongside contingency measures such as pipeline networks, storage reservoirs, and protective barriers. However, experts warn that these defences may be insufficient against modern threats, particularly drones.

With the Gulf producing around 40% of the world’s desalinated water, any large-scale disruption would have far-reaching consequences beyond the region. As populations grow and water demand rises, the analysis highlights the urgent need to protect water infrastructure while addressing broader challenges such as climate change, pollution, and environmental degradation.

By Nazrin Sadigova