Dividing line emerges amid Latin America's shifting loyalties

Ecuador this week ordered the expulsion of Cuba’s ambassador, giving him 48 hours to leave the country along with the entire diplomatic staff — a move that marks a serious rupture in relations between the two nations. Cuban officials suggested the timing may not be accidental, pointing to US President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on Cuba when speaking about the Iran crisis and his increasingly harsh rhetoric toward the island's leadership.

The decision by Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa further reinforces his alignment with a bloc of Latin American leaders — including those in Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, El Salvador and Honduras — who are seeking closer integration with Washington’s foreign policy agenda, according to an analysis published by TRT World.

The diplomatic rupture came just days before a high-profile meeting known as the "Shield of the Americas" summit that took place in Miami on March 7, where regional leaders gathered with US President Donald Trump.

Leaders from Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras and the Dominican Republic attended the meeting at Trump National Doral Miami, a golf resort owned by the Republican president that is also scheduled to host the Group of 20 summit later this year. Notably absent, however, were the region’s two largest powers — Brazil and Mexico — as well as Colombia, long considered the cornerstone of US anti-narcotics policy in the region.

President Noboa’s right-wing administration justified the move by invoking Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which allows host countries to dismiss diplomats without providing a detailed explanation. Ecuador declared the Cuban ambassador and his staff “persona non grata” and ordered them to leave.

As part of the same diplomatic move, Noboa also ordered the immediate withdrawal of Ecuador’s ambassador in Havana, Jose Maria Borja Lopez, who had been serving in Cuba since 2021.

By expelling the Cuban mission, the analysis argues that Noboa has triggered a new diplomatic crisis, adding Cuba to a growing list of countries — including Venezuela, Mexico and Nicaragua — with which Ecuador has already severed ties.

Trump told CNN this week that he believes Cuba “is going to fall pretty soon,” signalling continued interest by his administration in the island nation, although he emphasised that Iran remains the immediate priority.

Speaking about the ongoing mission in Iran, he said that “Cuba is gonna fall pretty soon, by the way, unrelated, but Cuba is gonna fall too. They want to make a deal so badly. They want to make a deal, and so I’m going to put Marco [Rubio] over there and we’ll see how that works out. We’re really focused on this one right now. We’ve got plenty of time, but Cuba’s ready — after 50 years.”

A day earlier at the White House, Trump suggested that the return of Cuban Americans to their homeland is only a “question of time,” indicating that Cuba could become a major focus for his administration after Iran.

According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center based on US Census Bureau data, an estimated 2.4 million people of Cuban origin live in the United States, making it home to the world’s largest Cuban diaspora. A majority of Cubans in the United States live in the Greater Miami (Florida) area, which was represented by now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself a child of Cuban immigrant parents, in the Senate for many years.

By Nazrin Sadigova