El Niño to bring extra heat, global climate shocks, experts say

A developing El Niño weather pattern is expected to significantly influence global climate conditions, bringing heightened risks of extreme weather events across multiple regions, climate scientists announced.

The warm, deep waters associated with El Niño are already affecting atmospheric systems, with experts warning of far-reaching impacts. Abby Frazier, a climate scientist at Clark University, said the phenomenon introduces “a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world.” She added that particularly in the Pacific, “it can get dire very quickly,” The Guardian reports.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also warned of its broader implications, describing El Niño as an “urgent climate warning.” In a video message, he said: “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”

The effects of El Niño vary widely by region. While it often reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, it tends to increase storm formation in the Pacific, shifting risk patterns across the globe. Frazier noted that while the US East Coast and Gulf Coast may see a relative reduction in hurricane activity, Hawaii and other Pacific islands face heightened danger.

In other regions, impacts are expected to be mixed. Climate scientists suggest the drought-stricken Middle East could see some relief, while western South America may experience heavy rainfall and flooding alongside unusually warm conditions. India is projected to face more severe heatwaves, while Australia is at risk of drought, wildfires, and extreme heat.

North-eastern Africa is expected to experience sharp climate variability. Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a climate scientist at Columbia University and El Niño expert, said the region is likely to see “weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains.”

In the United States, El Niño conditions typically bring more intense storms and heavier rainfall in southern regions, while also benefiting parts of the agriculture sector. Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said the pattern may bring mixed effects across industries.

Meteorologist and research head Michael Ferrari noted that agricultural conditions for grains and oilseeds, particularly soybeans, appear favorable across 18 major growing states, while outcomes for dairy and cattle remain more uncertain.

Some regions, including the northern Rockies and the US Southwest—where an “off the charts” snow drought has been observed—could see significant summer rainfall, Gottschalck added. He noted that the strongest US impacts typically occur in winter, when the southern states become wetter and the Pacific Northwest tends to be warmer and drier.

Beyond weather disruptions, economists warn of broader economic effects. Marshall Burke, a climate economist at Stanford University, said elevated temperatures linked to El Niño may slow growth in the United States. “We have pretty clear evidence that the US economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal,” he said.

Several scientists also predict that 2027 could become the hottest year on record due to lingering effects from the event, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter.

Typically, El Niño events form in summer, peak in late autumn or early winter, and dissipate by the following spring. However, Ehsan’s team forecasts an earlier peak by one to two months, based on strong recent signals. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi noted that larger El Niño events often last longer and are easier to detect early, adding that current forecasts are unusually consistent across models.

“Large El Niños like these also tend to last longer,” Vecchi said.

Scientists say stronger El Niño events are becoming more likely as global temperatures rise due to the burning of fossil fuels, although Frazier cautioned that it is too early to determine whether the current event fits that pattern.

Even before its full development, the system has already been described in dramatic terms, with labels ranging from “super” to “Godzilla.” Despite the alarming outlook, Ehsan urged a measured response: “Instead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared.”

By Vafa Guliyeva