EU must be ready to accept new members by 2030, Michel to propose

The EU must be ready to accept new member states by 2030, Michel will declare on August 28, kick-starting an existential debate on enlargement that is set to dominate high-level discussions within the bloc between now and the end of 2023.

Russia’s war against Kyiv has resurrected the EU’s previously comatose enlargement policy. Brussels has made Ukraine, Moldova and Albania candidate countries and instigated serious internal debate over how the bloc could accommodate as many as eight new members, the Financial Times reports.

“If we want to be credible, we must talk about timing,” Michel will say in a speech today in Slovenia, according to written remarks seen by the FT. “As we prepare the EU’s next strategic agenda, we must set ourselves a clear goal . . . we must be ready, on both sides, by 2030 to enlarge.”

“We must now address enlargement as one of our major challenges. Both for the EU and for its future member states,” Michel will tell the Bled Strategic Forum and an audience set to include leaders from candidate countries Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Michel’s role as council president is to encourage and cajole the 27 member states into consensus, and his bold declaration suggests he has heard enough around the table at recent leaders’ summits to believe it is possible.

Expect to hear a lot about enlargement over the next four months, and so-called “absorption capacity”, a buzz-phrase coined to cover the multitude of issues — from budgets to voting power — which will be affected by new members, and need to be negotiated before new memberships are granted.

EU leaders will have their first dedicated discussion on the topic in Granada, Spain, in early October. Ukraine is pushing for the EU to agree to start their formal accession process by the end of the year. And the question of how to provide financial support to all candidates (but Ukraine in particular) is at the heart of an ongoing, parallel debate on topping up the EU budget.

There are many member states who privately question how the EU can accommodate Ukraine, the poorest-ever candidate country. But political will is a powerful thing, and right now it’s pulling in Kyiv’s favour.

“This is ambitious, but necessary. It shows that we are serious,” Michel will say today. “The window of opportunity is open. We need to act on it.”