Europe's military powerhouses forge 5-10 year plan to shift NATO defence burden

The latest article published in the Financial Times reveals that Europe’s largest military powers are working on a plan to shift more defence responsibilities from the US to European capitals, aiming for a gradual handover over the next five to ten years. 

The move comes in response to fears sparked by President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to reduce the US commitment to NATO or withdraw from the alliance, which has long been central to Europe’s security.

Countries including the UK, France, Germany, and the Nordic nations are holding informal but structured talks, according to four European officials involved in the discussions. Their goal is to present a detailed plan to the US ahead of NATO’s annual summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal includes firm commitments to increase European defence spending and build up military capabilities, hoping to convince President Trump to approve a gradual handover that would allow the US to shift focus toward Asia.

The US, which accounts for a significant portion of NATO’s defence spending and provides military capabilities that European countries lack, is essential to European security. In addition to its nuclear deterrent, the US runs air, naval, and troop bases in Europe, and has 80,000 troops stationed across the continent.

In recent years, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have made efforts to increase their defence budgets in response to Trump’s calls for greater burden-sharing. The EU has also initiated efforts to speed up military investments across its member states. However, officials note that it will take an estimated five to ten years of increased spending for European powers to develop military capabilities that could replace most of the US’s defence contributions, excluding its nuclear deterrent.

“Increasing spending is the only option we have: burden sharing and shifting away from US reliance,” said one official. “We’re starting these talks, but it’s a massive task, and many are overwhelmed by the scale of it.”

While US diplomats have assured their European counterparts that President Trump remains committed to NATO and its mutual defence clause, many European capitals remain uneasy about the possibility of the White House scaling back troop deployments or disengaging from shared NATO tasks.

Some countries are hesitant to engage in burden-sharing discussions, fearing it may prompt the US to reduce its presence in Europe more quickly. Others doubt that the Trump administration would agree to a structured process, given its unpredictable nature.

“You need a deal with the Americans, but it’s unclear whether they will be willing to do it,” said another official. “Can we even trust them to stick to it?”

Officials point to ongoing discussions led by France and the UK about forming a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine against Russia and invest in European defence. These talks involve more than a dozen European defence powers and do not include the US.

Asked about the feasibility of a European pillar within NATO, one senior Western official said: “We’re seeing it right now: the UK and France taking the initiative on a reassurance force for Ukraine without the Americans.”

NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with reduced or no US involvement is easier than creating a new structure. NATO’s existing defense plans, command structure, and Article 5 mutual defense clause are key components that would be difficult to replicate.

"The basic defense of Europe would always require the UK, other Atlantic naval powers, the Nordics for the north, and Turkey for the southeast—members that NATO already has,” said Marion Messmer, senior research fellow for international security at Chatham House.

“Even without the United States, NATO provides a security structure and infrastructure that Europeans are familiar with,” Messmer added. “It handles much of the work that would need to be done from scratch if we were to create a separate structure just for European members.”

By Tamilla Hasanova