Europe weighs tougher countermeasures as Russia escalates hybrid warfare

Russia’s hybrid operations across Europe have pushed NATO members and EU governments into discussions that would have seemed unthinkable only a few years ago. With drones buzzing NATO territory, GPS jamming, sabotage, and covert operations attributed to Moscow, European officials are now seriously weighing how to respond more forcefully. How far they can go without triggering open conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia?

Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže captured the growing frustration in European capitals in conversation with Politico.

“The Russians are constantly testing the limits — what is the response, how far can we go?” she said. “A more proactive response is needed… And it’s not talking that sends a signal — it’s doing.”

Russian drones have entered the airspace of Poland and Romania, and mysterious unmanned aircraft have disrupted airports and military sites across Europe. There have also been naval and air incursions, as well as the explosion of a Polish rail link critical for transporting military aid to Ukraine.

German State Secretary for Defence Florian Hahn told Welt TV last week: "Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare ... [and] whether we should consider becoming more active ourselves in this area.”

The Prague-based think tank Globsec identified over 110 sabotage attempts in Europe from January to July, largely in Poland and France.

European officials insist deterrence does not mean submission. Swedish Chief of Defence Gen. Michael Claesson said: “We cannot allow ourselves to be fearful and have a lot of angst for escalation… We need to be firm.”

So far, the EU and NATO have focused on strengthening defences, but even that has angered Moscow. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Russia of “state terrorism” after sabotage on a Warsaw–Kyiv rail line. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas similarly warned that hybrid threats pose an “extreme danger” and require a “strong response.”

Some governments want to go further. Italy has proposed a 125-page plan for retaliation, including a European hybrid warfare center and a 1,500-person cyber force. Analysts interviewed by Politico say cyber operations could target Russian military production sites, such as the Alabuga drone-manufacturing zone.

However, officials stressed that any offensive response requires plausible deniability, and NATO remains cautious. As one alliance diplomat said, NATO will not “stoop to the same tactics as Russia.” Instead, the alliance is exploring rapid attribution of hybrid attacks and conducting unannounced exercises near Russia’s borders to demonstrate unity and resolve.

As one senior NATO diplomat summarised, more must be done to counter hybrid threats and to show that allies “can shift assets around in a flexible way.”

By Sabina Mammadli