Experts: Myanmar earthquake likely the strongest in decades Death toll could reach 100,000

On March 28, Myanmar was struck by a devastating earthquake, which experts believe to be the strongest to hit the country in decades. 

Disaster modelling indicates the death toll could be in the thousands, Caliber.Az reports per Phys.org portal.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported a shallow 7.7-magnitude earthquake, which occurred northwest of Sagaing, triggering a red alert for potential fatalities and economic damage. The epicentre was located near Mandalay, a city with a population exceeding one million.

By March 29 morning, Myanmar's ruling junta confirmed over 1,000 fatalities and more than 2,000 injuries. However, the USGS analysis suggested a 35% chance that the death toll could rise to between 10,000 and 100,000 people. The financial toll could potentially exceed Myanmar's GDP, with damage running into tens of billions of dollars. Efforts to provide relief are complicated by weak infrastructure in the military-ruled state, which has been ravaged by years of civil conflict since the 2021 military coup.

Bill McGuire, emeritus professor at University College London, stated that the earthquake was "probably the biggest earthquake on the Myanmar mainland in three-quarters of a century." A strong 6.7-magnitude aftershock struck shortly after the first quake, with McGuire warning of more tremors to come.

Rebecca Bell, a tectonics expert at Imperial College London, explained that the earthquake was the result of a side-to-side "strike-slip" along the Sagaing Fault, similar to the San Andreas Fault in California. Due to the fault's length and straightness, Bell said, "the larger the area of the fault that slips, the larger the earthquake."

Myanmar's vulnerability is heightened by decades of conflict and a building boom using reinforced concrete. Brian Baptie, a seismologist with the British Geological Survey, noted that while previous earthquakes of similar magnitude hit Myanmar, the modern infrastructure, consisting largely of high-rise buildings, is being tested for the first time in such an event. Many buildings in the affected areas are constructed from timber and unreinforced masonry, making them particularly vulnerable to shaking.

The quake also impacted neighbouring Thailand, where a 30-storey tower under construction collapsed, trapping workers in the debris. Christian Malaga-Chuquitaype, a civil engineering expert, explained that the soft soil in Bangkok amplified the shaking, affecting tall buildings even far from the epicentre. The collapse raised concerns over the safety of other tall buildings in the city, prompting authorities to send over 100 engineers to inspect the structures.

As Myanmar and Thailand grapple with the aftermath, experts are calling for improved infrastructure planning and stricter building codes to mitigate the devastating effects of future disasters.

Meanwhile, as part of Operation Brahma, India has sent five transport planes and two naval vessels with humanitarian aid to Myanmar.

Randhir Jaiswal, Official Spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, India, confirmed the aid, stating, "Five planes have already taken off. Additionally, we have ships en route to Myanmar."

On the morning of March 29, one ship, carrying 10 tonnes of humanitarian supplies, was dispatched, with the second following later that day. Both vessels are expected to reach the port of Yangon by the morning of March 31.

By Aghakazim Guliyev