Experts predict Georgian Dream's victory in 2024 elections Opposition faces scepticism

Georgian Dream (GM) will win this [parliamentary] election, there is no question about it, GM Chairman Irakli Garibashvili told journalists in Adjara, where the leaders of the ruling team met with the heads of party organisations and party activists. According to him, there should be maximum mobilisation in the regions, and the party's roadshows serve this very purpose.

"Two weeks ago, I announced that within 100 days I would hold party events in 10 regions. And we started the first meeting with Adjara. Today I met with representatives of the party organisation, party activists. We held talks about the beginning of the election campaign. The main task for us is to win these elections powerfully. There is no question that Georgian Dream will win these elections, but the question is that we must win these elections powerfully, convincingly and get a constitutional majority. This was the main message of our party. We must mobilise in all regions as much as possible and our roadshows are serving this purpose" - said Irakli Garibashvili.

Reacting to these words, Chairman of the opposition United National Movement (UNM) Levan Khabeishvili said that Ivanishvili's party knows for sure that it will lose the elections in any configuration. Khabeishvili is convinced that 2024 is an opportunity that the Georgian people will seize.

"Ivanishvili's party knows for sure that it will lose the elections in any configuration. The Georgian people want change, they want change for the sake of economic prosperity. 2024 is an opportunity and I am convinced that the Georgian people will seize it," said Levan Khabeishvili.

The speeches are very emotional, but what is the real balance of power before the parliamentary elections that await Georgia this year? Who is more popular with the people - Saakashvili's party (UNM) or the ruling force? Is there a possibility of a change of government as a result of these elections and a return to power of the main opposition party?

At the request of Caliber.Az, prominent Georgian experts provided clarity on these issues.

Kakha Gogolashvili, political scientist, director of the Rondeli Foundation Centre for European Studies (GFSIS), notes that the rating of the Georgian Dream is far ahead of all other parties, including the UNM.

"However, under the conditions of proportional elections, it needs to win more than 50 per cent of the votes to stay in power. The fact is that of those parties that have a chance to get into parliament, none of them will agree to enter into a coalition with Mechta. As for the opposition, it will hardly be able to form a coalition," the foundation's director believes.

As of today, it is difficult to judge who will win because more than 20 per cent of voters have not yet made up their minds, he said.

"A lot will depend on how well the Dream succeeds in the pre-election phase - how the economic and social situation turns out. The international assessment of reforms may also have an impact. Most importantly, the success of the opposition depends directly on the failures of the government. The course of the war in Ukraine may also have an impact, as Dream is more friends with Russia than with Ukraine, and failures of the Russian Federation may directly deprive it of support in the part of the population that believed that only Georgian Dream can prevent Russia from attacking Georgia," Gogolashvili said.

In turn, political scientist, founder of the SIKHA Foundation research centre Archil Sikharulidze noted that the balance is obvious - it is clearly in favour of the Georgian Dream (GM).

"I think there is no doubt that the GM has a significant advantage to all parties that will be in the role of opposition. And it is caused by the fact that the GM has a certain platform, a certain direction in which it works. GM declares that it keeps a balance and is not going to turn Georgia into an outpost against Russia, its goal is to diversify foreign policy, taking into account the strategic interests of the state. That is, on the one hand it is certainly in favour of Georgia's integration into Western institutions, but at the same time, it takes into account geopolitics and understands that the situation is much more complicated than simply wanting to become a part of the Western world. This is a balancing policy. That is, slow integration into Western structures, and on the other hand, taking into account the interests of Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia. GM is popular because it gives the Georgian people a chance to exhale after years of wars," the expert said.

As for the opposition, it is unclear what they are proposing, says the head of the centre.

"Because those radical statements that sound from there may be nice to hear, but they are actually hard to implement. And privately, the GM is ahead of the UNM, the party of Mikheil Saakashvili. The only way for the opposition to win is to prove that they have a real alternative. But it is not quite clear what it looks like, as the opposition claims that if it comes to power, it will be more anti-Russian, more supportive of the West, of Ukraine. However, all this seems to many people to be just rhetoric, because it is not clear how it will be reflected in reality.

It seems to me that both the Georgian political elite and the people are particularly well aware that there are wishes and there are opportunities. And it is not entirely clear what exactly the opposition is proposing. Moreover, I would say that the striking force of the opposition has long ago stopped working with ordinary people in the regions. They are mainly trying to put pressure on Georgian society and authorities from outside. They are trying to get external support and show that the reason why they should win the elections is not because they have something to offer to the Georgian people, but because they are supported by the West. And this has not worked for a long time. People do not fall for such things anymore, what matters to them is not who is supported in the West, but what these forces have to offer. This is very important to understand.

Since the GM has a very clear, clear platform, I think it will win the 2024 elections, unless of course the party does something crazy, which it sometimes does. Whether they can take a constitutional majority in parliament is the question. I think they will take a simple majority. But I don't doubt their victory," Sikharulidze concluded.