Fateful October: Georgia faces rising pressure as elections draw near Expert insights

Only a few days remain until the parliamentary elections in neighbouring Georgia, which are crucial for the country's future political direction. Unsurprisingly, the situation in the country has become one of the main topics at the recent planned two-day summit of the European Union in Brussels.

“The European Council will discuss several policy issues relating to our international relations, including the situation in Moldova, as well as in Georgia. Both countries are facing a crucial moment for their European path,” stated Charles Michel, President of the European Council, in a letter to EU leaders ahead of the summit.

Earlier, media reports indicated that following the summit, EU leaders plan to send a signal to the Georgian government that Brussels will halt euro-integration if Tbilisi does not change its political course. This has indeed occurred. The EU announced a de facto blocking of Georgia's membership in the union, as indicated in the final statement from the European summit.

“The European Council…reiterates its serious concern regarding the course of action taken by the Georgian government, which runs counter to the values and principles upon which the European Union is founded. The European Council recalls that such a course of action jeopardises Georgia’s European path, and de facto halts the accession process,” the statement reads.

On October 17, the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe adopted a declaration concerning the current situation in Georgia. The declaration was supported by 76 members, with 10 voting against it and 6 abstaining. It expresses “deep concern over clear signs of democratic backsliding and the weakening of human rights in Georgia,” The document also references the Foreign Agents Law and anti-LGBT legislation.

The Congress reiterated its call for the Georgian authorities to repeal this “anti-human rights legislation” and to refrain from further polarization of society, which threatens political pluralism and undermines human rights and democracy. “Georgia should return to the path of democratic consolidation and recommit to democratic principles and respect for human rights,” the declaration states.

How should we evaluate these actions by Europe regarding their potential impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia? Could this influence the attitudes and preferences of Georgian voters, and if so, in what direction? Georgian experts shared their insights on this topic at the request of Caliber.Az.

Political analyst and director of the Caucasus Center for Islamic Studies, Shota Apkhaidze, comments that he has heard similar statements from European officials and EU leadership before.

“And not just from Europe; such sentiments come from America as well. They revolve around the idea of imposing sanctions against Georgia, targeting individual politicians and the state itself. There’s a consistent condemnation of Georgia, claiming that democracy is lacking in the country and that we have turned away from Western values, euro-integration, and euro-Atlanticism.

However, Europe seems to forget that the ultimate goal of a state cannot solely be euro-integration or euro-Atlanticism, meaning membership in NATO and the European Union. The primary objectives of a state should include protecting its sovereignty, strengthening its constitutional order, and serving its people. These are the fundamental goals of any state. If European officials fail to understand this or disagree with the policies of Georgia’s leadership, which was elected legitimately, then they are grossly violating international law and our sovereignty. What can we even discuss after that? What about principles of parity or partnership?” the expert questions.

When discussing Georgia and Moldova, it’s important to remember that Moldova cannot be compared to Georgia in terms of reforms, he emphasized.

“Georgia has undertaken significant reforms to align its legislative system with European law. The country has implemented fundamental changes in areas such as human rights, the economy, infrastructure, law enforcement, the judiciary, the prosecutor's office, and the military, among others. In many respects, we have even outpaced some Eastern European nations that are already EU members. So what violations of standards are being discussed? These issues are often overlooked. This is a purely subjective approach. The EU manipulates and speculates on these matters.

How will this impact the internal situation in Georgia? The majority of Georgians, of course, support a pro-Western course. In reality, there’s a significant segment—about 50%—that holds this view for various reasons. There’s a prevailing narrative that if we join the EU, the Georgian economy will receive billions in subsidies, leading to immediate prosperity. Because of this, many people back the pro-European course, believing that if we are not accepted into the EU now, we will lose a lot,” the director explained.

He believes that students and the younger generation studying in Europe or planning to do so may also become anxious and make misguided choices.

“It's important to recognize that Türkiye has been waiting for EU membership for 40 years. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Northern Macedonia, and Albania are not even invited, despite being part of geographical Europe. So, who is really waiting for Georgia? This is nothing more than speculation intended to undermine the electoral campaign, sow discord within Georgian society, and continuously blackmail the Georgian leadership.

Ultimately, this will have a very negative impact on our country. Many people who have fallen victim to the propaganda of European integration may choose not to vote for the Georgian Dream party. Sentiments will escalate, which will not bode well for the electoral campaign. Europe and America are fully aware of this, and they are deliberately exploiting this situation for their own purposes,” Apkhaidze asserted.

Political analyst Archil Sikharulidze, the founder of the SIKHA Foundation research centre, pointed out that he believes Europeans are receiving information from Georgian NGOs, which are organizations that they themselves fund.

“Consequently, these NGOs are afraid of losing their influence—this is how they interpret the recent laws—and thus they produce reports that do not accurately reflect reality.

However, the Georgian Dream party is not steering the country toward Russia or anywhere else. Instead, based on its own interests and those of its voters, the ruling party presents society with a complex geopolitical approach to Georgia’s future. This approach signifies a shift away from radical pro-Westernism, which suggests that we must blindly adhere to whatever the West dictates. The Dream party highlights the advantages of pragmatism, recognizing that we live in a more complex world,” the researcher explains.

In contrast, radical pro-Western advocates offer nothing more than a call for blind obedience to the West’s directives.

“I have not heard any alternatives from them. The statements of European politicians indicate that they are out of touch, failing to understand the situation in our country, and viewing Georgia through an outdated lens—if you’re not with us, you’re not a democracy.

I believe that the Georgian Dream will win these elections, and for Europe and America, this will be a challenging period, as they must finally realize that the unipolar world in which the West could make unilateral demands is over. If our Western colleagues want something from Georgia, they need to consider the interests of the Georgian Dream.

Moreover, I believe that even if the opposition comes to power, as soon as they attempt radical measures while insisting there’s no path other than the Western one and that we must blindly adhere to Western values, their leaders will not remain in power for long—I can say that plainly and frankly,” Sikharulidze concluded.