Fertility in freefall: EU faces future of shrinking generations

The number of babies born across the European Union dropped to an unprecedented low in 2023, underscoring the region's deepening demographic crisis. 

Official Eurostat data revealed that births across the EU's 27 member states totalled just 3,665,000 last year — the lowest figure since records began in 1961, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

This marks a sharp 5.5% decline from the 3.88 million births recorded in 2022, the steepest annual drop on record. The 2023 total also fell short of Eurostat’s projection of 4 million births, made in its long-term population forecasts.

EU birth rates have been in steep decline since their mid-1960s peak of nearly 7 million births annually. Today, birth rates in the EU align with those in the United States, raising alarm over the future sustainability of Europe’s ageing societies. Shrinking working-age populations are expected to increase the strain on state finances, as healthcare and pension costs rise to support growing elderly populations.

Rising pressures 

Experts suggest the declining birth rates are influenced by a complex mix of long-standing trends and new pressures. Guangyu Zhang, population affairs officer at the UN, noted that economic and global uncertainties likely contribute to the fall in births. “Job insecurity, rising costs of living and housing prices, as well as global crises like the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and climate change, could negatively affect individual reproductive decisions,” Zhang explained.

Willem Adema, senior economist at the OECD, highlighted structural challenges faced by young Europeans. “Youngsters have greater difficulty than before to establish themselves in the labour market, in the housing market, and perhaps also in the dating market. That is one part of the story which is fairly clear,” he said.

Maria Rita Testa, professor of demography at Luiss University in Rome, pointed to additional factors, including heightened political and economic tensions and growing concerns over climate change, that may discourage parenthood.

Delayed parenthood and older mothers

Eurostat data also shows a marked trend toward later parenthood. The average age of women at the birth of their first child reached nearly 30 in 2022, up from 28.8 in 2013. Additionally, the proportion of births among women aged 40 and older more than doubled over the past decade, rising from 2.5% to 6%. This shift reflects the increasing delay in parenthood, as many women choose to have children closer to the end of their reproductive years.

Regional disparities

The decline in births has been particularly pronounced in countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states, where birth rates have fallen by at least 25% over the past decade. These nations face some of the most acute demographic pressures in the EU, exacerbating concerns about their economic and social sustainability.

Policy implications

Adema emphasized the need for governments to adapt to persistently low fertility rates by encouraging immigration, enhancing productivity, and boosting workforce participation, especially among women. Testa urged policymakers to provide targeted support for young people, advocating a comprehensive approach that addresses education, labour market stability, mental health, and affordable housing.

Without such measures, Europe’s demographic challenges may deepen, with far-reaching consequences for its economies, societies, and younger generations.

By Tamilla Hasanova