Finnish intelligence warns Russia likely to target Baltic undersea infrastructure

In its latest review published today, January 22, Finnish military intelligence stated that Russia is likely to continue its efforts to damage underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

The review reads that Russia's ability to utilise ships operating in the Baltic Sea region for wide-ranging influence remains significant, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Finnish outlet Yle. 

The intel says an immediate military threat from Russia to Finland is unlikely this year, as Russian forces are engaged in operations in Ukraine.

However, in the future, when Russia's armed forces advance and gain new capabilities, their ability to conduct military operations in the direction of Finland will increase significantly, the intelligence estimates.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Baltic Sea region has seen multiple outages of undersea power cables, telecommunications links, and gas pipelines. These disruptions have raised concerns among Nordic and Baltic states about the security of critical infrastructure beneath the Baltic Sea.

A notable recent incident occurred on New Year’s Eve, when Finnish authorities seized a cargo vessel — reportedly travelling from Russia — on suspicion of attempting to sabotage an undersea telecoms cable. Finland’s Defence Command has warned that Russia “likely persist[s] in its ambitions to damage the undersea infrastructure of the Baltic Sea.”

In previous incidents, Finland’s courts seized the oil tanker Eagle S, which Finnish prosecutors linked to damaged submarine cables connecting Finland and Estonia. The vessel is widely described in reporting as part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — commercial ships that continue to operate amid Western sanctions and are suspected of either carrying out or facilitating hybrid operations in the Baltic Sea.

In response to these threats, NATO has strengthened its military presence in the Baltic Sea region, deploying warships, patrol aircraft, and naval drones to protect undersea cables and pipelines and deter hostile actions.

By Khagan Isayev