How China's strategy may evolve amid US and European challenges

In 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted the unprecedented global shifts reshaping international dynamics. His assertion of "profound changes unseen in a century" aptly reflects the current geopolitical landscape, where technological innovation and political uncertainty are redefining global power structures. As the U.S. and Europe face internal and external challenges, China is poised to recalibrate its foreign policy strategy, leveraging opportunities in other regions while grappling with complexities in its relationships with the West.

Analyzing this complex geopolitical shift, Foreign Affairs explores how China’s foreign policy could evolve amidst the uncertainty caused by U.S. retrenchment and European strains.

China’s rise has been marked by rapid technological advancements, such as in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, alongside growing economic and political clout. The ongoing turbulence in the U.S., including trade wars initiated by the Trump administration, and Europe’s destabilization due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, has opened up spaces for China to maneuver. However, Beijing's opportunities to capitalize on these disruptions remain tempered by significant geopolitical risks, particularly in Europe and the U.S.

The article presents a nuanced picture of China's approach to both the United States and Europe. While China could benefit from a potential "grand bargain" with the Trump administration, historical patterns of instability and mistrust make such an agreement fragile. Trump's erratic style, characterized by inconsistent policies and personal diplomacy with Xi, offers China short-term openings but poses long-term challenges. The unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy and Trump’s tendency to favor transactional relations make a durable solution unlikely, especially as concerns over trade, technology, and Taiwan persist.

In Europe, the situation is equally complex. China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict has damaged its relations with many European nations. Despite this, China is cautiously exploring opportunities for engagement, particularly in the event of a peace settlement in Ukraine. China could play a significant role in Ukraine's post-conflict reconstruction, positioning itself as a critical economic and strategic partner in the region. However, Beijing’s deep ties to Russia complicate its efforts to reorient European sentiment. If the conflict escalates, Beijing will face a tough decision: distance itself from Russia, risking alienation, or double down on support, further isolating itself from the West.

Despite these challenges in the U.S. and Europe, the article suggests that China’s best prospects lie elsewhere. The U.S. withdrawal from international agreements and erratic policy moves have created a vacuum in regions like Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia. These areas are increasingly looking to China as a reliable alternative to Washington, and Beijing is positioning itself to capitalize on these shifts. The Belt and Road Initiative and China’s growing influence in these regions offer substantial diplomatic and economic leverage.

Ultimately, while China’s efforts to reshape its relationships with the U.S. and Europe may face significant obstacles, the broader global context offers greater potential for Beijing’s strategic ambitions. As Xi Jinping’s forecast of “profound changes” unfolds, China’s ability to navigate this uncertainty may redefine its role on the global stage.

By Vugar Khalilov