Impact of Western support on Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities ISW analysis

Russian officials are intensifying efforts to deter the West from enabling Ukraine to utilize long-range weapons against Russia, reflecting significant concern from the Kremlin.

According to the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a recent article in The New York Times highlights these dynamics, Caliber.Az reports.

On September 26, the paper reported, citing anonymous U.S. officials, that U.S. intelligence assessments had “downplayed” the impact of Ukrainian strikes on the war's progression with the long-range missile systems supplied by the U.S., Britain, and France. This downplaying stems from Ukraine's limited access to such weapons and uncertainties surrounding future deliveries of longer-range systems.

However, U.S. military officials and supporters within the Biden administration believe that these Western-supplied weapons would enable Ukraine to target more distant Russian bases and ammunition depots. This shift could compel the Russian military to relocate their ammunition depots, command posts, and attack helicopters beyond the reach of Western missiles, thereby complicating their supply lines in Ukraine.

ISW's conclusion

ISW asserts that even a limited number of successful long-range strikes by Ukraine could have a significant asymmetric impact, leading Russian forces to move key military and storage facilities away from the front lines. This would further complicate Russian logistics in the region.

For example, in the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces executed a series of HIMARS strikes on Russian ammunition depots in occupied territories. This prompted the Russian military to disperse their ammunition storage, thereby diminishing the efficiency of their logistics operations.

Consequently, ISW concludes that Russian authorities are likely anxious about how relocating these critical storage facilities further from the front lines will affect their offensive capabilities in Ukraine.

Furthermore, analysts note that Russian officials are likely engaged in a concerted rhetorical campaign to dissuade the West from enabling Ukraine to launch another impactful strike campaign.

By Tamilla Hasanova