International Monetary Fund projects rising oil prices for 2026

Analysts at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have sharply increased their forecast for the average oil price in 2026, according to the organisation’s report.

The estimate refers to the arithmetic mean price of three major global benchmarks — the North Sea Brent crude, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and the Arab Dubai benchmark. Experts now expect the figure to reach $82.22 per barrel. In comparison, the previous estimate stood at $62.13, meaning the forecast was raised by 21.4 percent, or $20.09 per barrel.

The main reason for the sharp revision is the escalation in the Middle East. The war in Iran has led not only to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz but also to a rapid reduction in oil exports and production in regional countries. These factors have ultimately triggered a steep rise in global oil prices.

The failure of Iran-US negotiations has further intensified tensions in the Middle East. Following the diplomatic breakdown in Islamabad, the President of the United States announced the start of a blockade on Iranian oil exports. Under such conditions, the global energy market could lose approximately two million barrels of oil per day.

By Jeyhun Aghazada