Iran vows "proportionate" response if Israel strikes key infrastructure

Iran is preparing its armed forces for the possibility of an Israeli retaliatory strike, while simultaneously trying to avoid a full-scale war.

Four anonymous Iranian officials, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), revealed that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had directed the military to develop various response plans, Caliber.Az reports, citing an article by The New York Times.

Iran’s actions would depend on the severity of any Israeli attack, with a proportionate retaliation likely if key infrastructure like oil facilities or nuclear sites are targeted.

The escalating tensions come after a missile barrage from Iran earlier this month, which was itself a response to Israel's assassination of leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, both backed by Iran. If Israel's strikes cause significant damage, Iran could retaliate with up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, launch attacks via proxy groups, or disrupt global energy supplies in the Persian Gulf. However, if Israeli attacks are limited to military installations, Iran may choose not to escalate the conflict.

Iranian officials are publicly trying to balance their stance. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking at a BRICS summit in Russia, emphasized that Iran's response would be "proportionate and calculated." Iranian leaders face the challenge of responding decisively while avoiding a major war that could derail diplomatic efforts to ease sanctions and revive the country's troubled economy. The article highlights that some factions within Iran’s leadership are dismissing the significance of a potential Israeli strike, while others advocate for retaliation.

Complicating matters, Iran is concerned that a prolonged conflict could destabilize the region further and harm its strategic alliances. Iran has been engaging in diplomatic efforts to warn Arab countries against assisting Israel, securing assurances that Israeli jets would not be allowed to use neighbouring airspace. Iran's diplomatic outreach has also included back-channel communications aimed at preventing a broader war.

Recent Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah have weakened Iran’s regional deterrence capabilities, increasing the stakes for Iran's leaders. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi have been cautious in their public responses, while military leaders have warned of severe consequences for Israel. On the ground in Tehran, however, there are few visible signs of war preparations, and many Iranians express concerns about being drawn into a conflict they do not support. Economic indicators, such as the weakening rial and rising gold prices, reflect a country under increasing strain.

Overall, Iran is treading a delicate line between preparing for a military confrontation and seeking to avoid an all-out war, while facing significant pressure both at home and abroad.