Iran war shapes 2028 race as Vance, Rubio emerge as Trump heirs

The war in Iran is increasingly shaping both Donald Trump’s political standing and the future of two ключевых figures seen as potential successors: JD Vance and Marco Rubio.

Now in its fifth week, according to Reuters, the conflict has drawn both men into ongoing efforts to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and ensuring free oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Their contrasting approaches have come into sharper focus: Vance has adopted a cautious tone, reflecting scepticism toward prolonged US military involvement, while Rubio has strongly backed Trump’s more hawkish позицию and emerged as a leading public defender of the campaign.

With Trump barred from seeking another term in 2028, discussions about succession are intensifying. According to sources, the president has privately raised the вопрос of “JD or Marco?” with advisers, as both figures position themselves for a potential run. The outcome of the war is widely seen as critical to their prospects. A swift and favourable resolution for the US could strengthen Rubio’s credentials as a crisis manager, while a prolonged conflict may benefit Vance by aligning with anti-war sentiment within Trump’s base.

Trump’s own approval rating has come under pressure, falling to 36%—its lowest level since his return to office—amid rising fuel prices and public discontent over the war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Within Republican circles, attention has focused on subtle signals of Trump’s предпочтения, with some perceiving a tilt toward Rubio, though the White House has rejected such speculation.

Despite past differences with Trump, Vance has publicly supported the administration’s handling of the conflict, while maintaining a more restrained rhetoric. Rubio, who also serves as national security adviser, has taken a more assertive role, though he faced backlash after suggesting Israel influenced US involvement in the war.

Polling shows both men enjoy strong support among Republicans, with Vance slightly ahead. However, analysts say the trajectory of the Iran conflict will likely play a decisive role in shaping the Republican Party’s post-Trump leadership.

By Tamilla Hasanova