Israel at a crossroads: Is the two-state solution doomed? Foreign Affairs analysis

A recent Foreign Affairs article starkly warns that Israel faces a pivotal choice: make a serious bid for a two-state solution with the Palestinians or risk long-term international isolation and perpetual conflict. The piece argues that more than fifty years after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and UNSC Resolution 242, Israelis and Palestinians have failed to resolve core disputes, but the current moment represents a rare window for meaningful diplomacy that is rapidly closing.

The article underscores that Israel enjoys an unprecedentedly favorable security environment. Threats along its borders and in the wider region have been significantly weakened, providing Israel a strategic advantage in addressing Palestinian nationalism through both political and military channels. Yet, this window is finite. Despite support from the White House, long-term U.S. and European backing is not guaranteed, particularly if Israel is increasingly viewed internationally as a state denying rights to millions of Palestinians.

Political realities within Israel have shifted dramatically, especially following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. The article highlights that Israel’s right-wing, religious-nationalist bloc has consolidated power, weakening pro-two-state factions and strengthening opposition to Palestinian statehood. This internal political transformation, combined with the expansion of West Bank settlements—over 140 government-authorized and 200 unauthorized outposts housing more than 500,000 Israelis—has made land-for-peace agreements increasingly difficult. Every new settlement increases political resistance and economic costs, compounding the obstacles to diplomacy.

Despite these challenges, the article argues that a Palestinian state remains in Israel’s interest. A sovereign Palestinian entity would reduce terrorism by creating accountability, relieve demographic and political pressures in Jordan, and allow Israel to maintain its dual identity as a Jewish and democratic state. Additionally, international legitimacy for Israel would be strengthened, potentially mitigating growing anti-Israel sentiment in Europe, North America, and beyond. A viable Palestinian state could also reinvigorate the Abraham Accords and promote regional stability, encouraging Arab states to expand normalized relations with Israel.

The authors stress that immediate diplomatic efforts should be modest yet purposeful, focusing on preserving the possibility of a two-state outcome rather than rushing to final terms. This involves resisting unilateral actions by Israel, Palestinians, or external actors, and ensuring that Palestinian statehood is negotiated in tandem with Israel. Crucially, a pathway to statehood could empower moderate Palestinian leadership while encouraging a more constructive Israeli approach, creating conditions for eventual long-term compromise.

The piece concludes with a call to action: Israel, the U.S., European powers, and Arab states must seize the moment. While risks abound and the prospects are daunting, the combination of favorable security conditions, regional willingness to normalize relations, and potential U.S. engagement creates a “now or never” scenario. Without decisive diplomatic action, the status quo of occupation and unilateral settlement expansion threatens to cement perpetual conflict and international isolation.

In essence, the article portrays Israel’s current moment as a strategic inflection point: the two-state solution is far from dead, but decisive political will, regional coordination, and constructive engagement are urgently required to prevent a permanent stalemate.

By Vugar Khalilov