Central Asia's delicate balancing act in Iran-Israel conflict

If Iran and Israel return to war, Central Asia would face not only economic consequences but also the risk of becoming entangled in a wider regional conflict.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by US President Donald Trump in June, may not endure. A breakdown of the truce would send shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. For Central Asia, renewed hostilities could disrupt vital trade corridors, endanger regional economic interconnectivity, and unsettle an already fragile geopolitical balance, as an article by The National Interest argues.

According to the article, the Central Asian states have significant stakes in any war involving Iran. In June, these former Soviet republics responded to the Iran-Israel war — which included US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — by calling for de-escalation while attempting to shield their own region from instability.

For Turkmenistan, the only Central Asian republic sharing a border with Iran, the risk of spillover was particularly acute. Yet the stakes were also high for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, all of which would be vulnerable to the broader fallout.

As the Middle East descended further into crisis, all five Central Asian nations carefully balanced their relationships not only with Iran and Israel, but also with China, Russia, and the West.

Countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan recognize that overreliance on oil and gas revenues is not sustainable, which underscores the importance of trade routes for their long-term prosperity. Central Asian states increasingly seek to position themselves as integral links in key trade corridors, becoming pivotal players in both East-West and North-South interconnectivity.

Given that all of them are landlocked or doubly landlocked, their access to the Persian Gulf through Iran is invaluable. Maintaining strong ties with Tehran provides these states a gateway to global markets.

The Bandar Abbas port in Iran, in particular, serves as a crucial hub in this regard. Although Western and UN sanctions on Iran remain a major obstacle to deeper economic integration, Central Asian governments continue to view Iran as an indispensable transit route — one essential to sustaining their economic growth over the long term.

Persian cultural footprint in Central Asia

Iran’s influence in Central Asia is rooted in centuries of shared history, language, and culture. Tehran leverages this civilizational legacy to position the region within its sphere of influence. This is most evident in Tajikistan, Central Asia’s only Persian-speaking country, where linguistic and cultural ties underpin Iran’s soft power.

“Until the Russification in the 19th and Sovietization in the twentieth centuries, the Persian language and literary traditions were widespread in the region. This legacy still acts as a source of attraction towards Iran, especially in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which have a large Tajik population and its language is extensively influenced by Persian,” said Dr. Shireen Hunter, an honorary fellow at the Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown University, who served as an Iranian diplomat before 1979.

However, the article notes that Iran’s Islamist ideology has strained relations with the secular governments of Central Asia, undermining Tehran’s ability to capitalize on historical and linguistic commonalities. This tension-fueled friction throughout the 1990s and 2000s, particularly as the newly independent republics confronted the rise of jihadist extremism.

Uzbekistan, for example, suffered a series of bombings and militant incursions between the late 1990s and early 2000s. In Tajikistan, Iran’s past support for the Islamic Renaissance Party severely strained diplomatic ties. By the mid-2010s, Dushanbe had shut down Iranian cultural organizations operating within its borders.

Although relations between Dushanbe and Tehran began to thaw by the late 2010s, the earlier disputes revealed how Iranian influence — once grounded in shared linguistic and cultural heritage — has increasingly been viewed through a prism of ideological suspicion and geopolitical caution.

Another challenge to Iran’s regional influence lies in the Turko-Persian divide, which has limited deeper engagement with Central Asia’s four Turkic-majority states.

“A shared Islamic heritage and centuries of Persian cultural influence on Central Asia provide a favourable backdrop for relations between Kazakhstan and Iran. These factors facilitate mutual understanding on a human level and make diplomatic engagement smoother. Kazakhstan holds deep respect for Iran’s rich history and culture. However, religion and culture are not decisive factors in the foreign policy of secular Kazakhstan,” explained Dr. Sanat Kushkumbayev, a Senior Fellow at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Astana’s relationship with Tehran is not built on religious solidarity [as Kazakhstan’s Sunni Islam differs markedly from Iran’s Shiism], but on sober economic and geopolitical calculation. Cultural affinity serves as a useful tool of soft power and diplomacy, yet the priorities remain security and mutual economic benefit,” he added.

By Nazrin Sadigova