ISW: Cutting US military aid to Ukraine to not lead to peace

A reduction in US military aid to Ukraine would neither promote sustainable peace nor force Russian President Vladimir Putin to alter his strategy in the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in its latest assessment published on June 11.

The Washington-based think tank stated that Putin’s current theory of victory is based on the belief that Russia can outlast both Ukrainian defensive capabilities and Western support through slow, incremental battlefield advances, Caliber.Az reports.

"Putin's theory of victory posits that the Russian military can sustain creeping, incremental advances on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can defend and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine," the report stated. 

According to ISW, sustained and large-scale military assistance—particularly from the United States—is vital for Ukraine to achieve meaningful progress on the battlefield and challenge Putin’s assumptions.

“Battlefield gains that change Putin's calculus would force Russia to engage in constructive negotiations to ensure a peaceful resolution to the war,” the report noted.

ISW emphasised that any cut in American aid would likely provide Russia with greater advantages, embolden Putin to continue the conflict, and reinforce his belief that Ukraine can be defeated militarily. This outcome, the analysts said, contradicts US President Donald Trump’s stated objective of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine.

By Sabina Mammadli