India’s Russian crude imports set to reach six-month peak in December Reuters forecast

India’s imports of Russian crude oil are poised to hit a six-month high in December, as the world’s third-largest oil buyer continues to defy U.S. sanctions targeting Moscow’s energy sector.

According to a Reuters columnist who cites data compiled by commodity analytics firm Kpler, crude shipments from Russia to India are expected to rise to 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, up from 1.83 million bpd in November. This marks the third consecutive month of growth and represents the highest monthly volume since June, when imports reached 2.10 million bpd.

While U.S. sanctions on leading Russian producers such as Lukoil and Rosneft have not dampened India’s appetite for Russian crude, the composition of buyers has shifted. The largest share of Russian crude arriving in India in December is expected at Vadinar port, with Kpler estimating deliveries of roughly 658,000 bpd. This is up from 561,000 bpd in November and exceeds the 2025 average of 431,000 bpd.

Vadinar port services the refinery of the same name, owned by Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft holds a 49.13% stake. The refinery has a processing capacity of 405,000 bpd, indicating that current imports from Russia significantly surpass its operational capacity. This suggests that Nayara is likely storing the crude, either in anticipation of relaxed sanctions or in the hope that additional buyers will overlook the restrictions. Storage limitations, however, could soon constrain further imports, as Vadinar can hold approximately 20 million barrels of crude and refined products combined.

Reliance scales back Russian crude

In contrast, India’s other major privately-owned refiner, Reliance Industries, is reducing its Russian crude intake. Deliveries via its Sikka port, which supplies the 1.24 million bpd Jamnagar refinery complex, are projected at around 293,000 bpd in December. This is down sharply from 552,000 bpd in November and well below the 826,000 bpd received in June, the highest of the year.

Reliance, which has a 500,000 bpd long-term agreement with Rosneft, has emphasised compliance with U.S. and European sanctions. The move is widely seen as protecting the company’s European export flows and minimising potential legal risks. Despite this, Reliance appears to be the exception among Indian refiners. State-owned companies are expected to account for roughly 904,000 bpd of Russian crude imports in December, according to Kpler.

The new U.S. sanctions, announced in October, have not significantly curtailed India’s Russian oil purchases. Analysts suggest India may be calculating that the deep discounts on Russian crude outweigh any political consequences.

China maintains steady imports

China, the only other major buyer of Russian crude, is also maintaining strong import levels. Seaborne imports from Russia are projected to reach 1.36 million bpd in December, up from 1.22 million bpd in November and above the 2025 average of 1.22 million bpd, according to Kpler.

While it may appear that sanctions have failed to curb Russian crude exports to India and China, the reality is nuanced. Both countries are likely negotiating and receiving larger discounts on Russian oil, which could reduce Russia’s overall revenues despite stable shipment volumes. Whether these price adjustments will deter further Western sanctions remains a key uncertainty for the global oil market.

By Tamilla Hasanova