ISW: Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely

Mobilization in Russia is unlikely in the near to medium term, as Putin personally worries it would pose a direct threat to the stability of his regime.

Recent observations by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate speculation about a potential new wave of mobilisations by Russia ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration, particularly in response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024; however, as of now, Putin has not approved any such measures, Caliber.Az reports.

According to the opposition outlet Meduza, sources close to the Kremlin indicated that discussions of mobilising troops arose soon after Ukraine's incursion. Yet, these plans faced opposition from the Russian Cabinet of Ministers and Kremlin-affiliated business leaders.

Throughout the incursion, Putin has consistently emphasised his commitment to enlisting volunteers, proudly highlighting the number of individuals eager to join the fight in Ukraine and engaging directly with Russian volunteers.

Notably, rather than using the incursion to prepare the Russian public for another mobilisation, Putin has opted to establish new irregular military formations and enhance volunteer recruitment efforts. This approach contrasts sharply with the public shock experienced during the declaration of partial mobilisation in September 2022, as Putin likely aims to avoid any backlash from society in the current context.