ISW: Pro-Ukrainian groups' raid on Belgorod region causes panic in Russia

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22.

The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armoured personnel carrier, and nine other armoured vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast,” the ISW reported.

Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some military bloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture, the report added.

ISW noted that it “has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol”.

Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank. The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.

“Russian military bloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.  Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka. The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22,” ISW analysts said.

Ukrainian officials noted that they are aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 

“Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov noted that the RDK and LSR are comprised exclusively of Russian citizens and reported that the groups launched an operation in Belgorod Oblast to ‘liberate these territories...from the so-called Putin regime’ and create a ‘security zone’ by the border to protect Ukrainian civilians from further Russian shelling,” the report said.

Advisor to Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Ukraine is observing and studying the situation but “has no direct relation to it”, noting that armed anti-regime Russian partisan movements are inevitable against the backdrop of the war.

The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced on May 22 the start of a counterterrorism operation regime in order to “ensure the safety of citizens in Belgorod Oblast”.

While some social media users posted footage claiming to show an official evacuation from the Grayvoron region, the Belgorod Oblast Emergencies Ministry reported that it never announced an evacuation and suggested that some individuals may be leaving of their own accord.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Russian Defence Ministry (MoD), Federal Security Service (FSB), and Border Service reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin on an “attempt by Ukrainian saboteurs to break into Belgorod Oblast”. Peskov also accused Ukraine of staging the incident in order to distract from the situation in Bakhmut.

 A Russian military blogger additionally claimed that the Russian military leadership decided to deploy the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) to the Belgorod Oblast border area in order to counter the attack.

“The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks,” ISW said.

Some military bloggers fixated on the fact that the RDK and LSR are comprised of mostly Russians and labelled them traitors to Russia, baselessly accusing them of working under the GUR.

Several military bloggers additionally speculated that the attack was a purposeful information operation intended to distract from the recent Russian capture of Bakhmut and instill panic in the Russian information space before a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist military blogger Igor Girkin remarked that he has long warned that such cross-border raids may be part of a wider Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin took advantage of the incident to accuse the Russian government and its bureaucratic inertia of contributing to the attack and criticized the Russian MoD for being unable to strengthen Russian borders and defend Russia.

The first observed line of Russian defensive fortifications notably runs 2km in front of Gora Podol, and the suggestion that RDK forces managed to penetrate the defensive line emphasizes the weakness of such fortifications at least when not fully manned by well-prepared and well-equipped soldiers. While the majority of military bloggers responded with relatively varied concern, anxiety, and anger, the information space did not coalesce around one coherent response, which indicates first and foremost that the attack took Russian commentators by surprise.

Key Takeaways:

- Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22.

- Ukrainian officials noted that they are aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials.

- The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks.

- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months.

- Ukrainian officials stated that limited fighting continued in and around Bakhmut on May 22.

- The Russian informational response to the capture of Bakhmut has thus far focused on competing for responsibility for the victory rather than discussing the resulting military situation. The hyperfocus on claiming victory in Bakhmut distracts from the precarious Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, underscoring the weight of Prigozhin’s influence in the information space.

- Russian forces launched another large-scale drone and missile strike against Ukrainian infrastructure on the night of May 21-22.

- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction.

- Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.

- The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant reportedly lost power for the seventh time since the beginning of the war.

- The Russian military is reportedly lowering the length of training for convicts in order to compensate for heavy losses.

- Russian occupation authorities announced that preliminary voting for the ruling United Russia Party has commenced in occupied territories.