ISW: Russian troops hope to halt Ukraine’s successful offensive

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. 

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar reported on June 12 that Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Tavrisk (Zaporizhia) directions have advanced 6.5km and retaken 90 square kilometres of territory over the past week, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War.

Malyar added that Ukrainian forces liberated one settlement in western Zaporizhia Oblast and six settlements in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts in the same period.

Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian troops continued counterattacks on the flanks of Bakhmut and advanced 250 to 700 metres in unspecified areas on the outskirts of the city.

Russian sources noted that Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks on Russian positions southwest, north and northwest of Bakhmut, particularly near Berkhivka (3km northwest of Bakhmut).

Geolocated footage posted on June 12 additionally indicates that Ukrainian forces have made limited advances in western Donetsk Oblast south of Velyka Novosilka.

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces are trying to counterattack in this area and that fighting continued in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area over the course of June 12.

The bloggers additionally reported Ukrainian combat activity in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Orikhiv, but noted that the intensity of attacks on this sector has decreased somewhat.

On June 12, Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack in western Donetsk Oblast following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient on June 11. 

Russian forces have made no confirmed territorial gains in these counterattacks as of this publication, though some Russian sources reported that Russian forces recaptured Makarivka (5km south of Velyka Novosilka).

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces still control Makarivka as of June 12.

A Russian source reported that fighting in the Vremivka salient was ongoing and that the results of the battle are unclear.

Ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin claimed that, if true, these reports confirm the success of Russian flexible defence tactics in the area and that the Russian military command cares more about wearing down Ukrainian forces than regaining territory.

Girkin noted that the typical defence of Russian forces is to retreat to rear areas to draw Ukrainian infantry out from Ukrainian air defence and electronic warfare coverage.

He also said that Russian forces then attack the area with tank and air defence support in order to prevent the Ukrainian forces from deploying air defence elements forward to newly gained areas.

Russian military bloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defences against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces managed to make tactical gains on June 11 due to heavy rain and fog preventing Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and army aviation (rotary wing aircraft) from striking Ukrainian force concentrations.

Russian sources reported that Russian VKS and army aviation resumed intense airstrikes against Ukrainian forces on June 12 after the rain cleared.

War criminal Girkin claimed that the weather will play an important role in determining the outcome of operations in this sector in the coming days.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front on June 12.
• Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient in western Donetsk Oblast on June 11.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defences against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on June 11 that he had received an order from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to subordinate his forces under the Russian military command.
• The Russian MoD formalization efforts are likely intended to centralize control of Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as well as restrict Prigozhin's independence.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to rhetorically align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and further distancing himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and made gains as of June 12.
• Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counteroffensive operations southwest of Orikhiv.
• Social media video footage circulated on June 12 reportedly shows Russian barrier troops shooting Russian forces that abandoned their positions somewhere in Ukraine.
• Russia continues to strengthen the legal regime in occupied areas of Ukraine under martial law.