ISW: Syrian troops close in on PKK/YPG strongholds near Raqqa MAP/VIDEO

On January 23, Syrian Military Operations Command (MOC) forces captured a strategically significant stretch of territory near the Zamla oil field, south of Raqqa, in Syria’s Badiya region.

The operation marks an important development in the ongoing conflict in the area, as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes in its analysis, per Caliber.Az.

According to ISW’s analysis, geolocation footage shows MOC convoys arriving in the town of Zamla, located approximately 12 kilometres south of Rusafa. Syrian media outlets confirmed the capture of several oil fields in the vicinity, as well as towns in the desert west of Zamla.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is closely linked to the PKK/YPG (designated a terrorist organization by Türkiye, EU and US), warned the international coalition about the security vacuum between their territories and those controlled by the Syrian interim government. The SDF highlighted the growing ISIL threat in this region, especially after the withdrawal of Assad regime-affiliated forces from areas like Zamla and its oil fields. ISW analysts note that this shift could potentially allow ISIL to regain a foothold in these desert areas.

The SDF indicated that both Military Operations Command and international coalition forces held a meeting near Rusafa, after which private military contractors (PMCs) were deployed to the region. This coordination suggests that the Syrian government is focused on consolidating control over the Syrian Badiya, a critical region where ISIL could re-emerge.

ISW experts believe the MOC forces have been strategically positioned to exert pressure on PKK/YPG forces south of Lake Assad. Syrian Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra previously indicated that the government is prepared for potential military action against the SDF if negotiations fail.

According to ISW, the presence of SDF forces in the Rusafa desert — located at the intersection of Syrian government-controlled territory to the west and PKK/YPG-held territory to the north — gives the Syrian army a tactical advantage. This positioning would allow Syrian forces to potentially advance north, cutting off the southern bulge of PKK/YPG forces along the southwestern shore of Lake Assad and possibly breaching the defences of Raqqa.

Additionally, ISW analysts note that Rusafa’s proximity to Ain Issa, where Syrian National Army (SNA) forces are currently deployed, creates an opportunity for coordinated operations from both the north and south, potentially surrounding Raqqa.

Key Findings:

• Negotiations with the SDF: Syrian Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasr has made it clear that while negotiations with the SDF continue, the government is ready to use military force if necessary. This is one of the most explicit threats of military action against the RKK/YPG formations from a government spokesperson.

• Deployment of MOC Forces: On January 23, MOC forces seized key territory near the Zamla oil field, strategically positioning themselves to pressurize PKK/YPG forces south of Lake Assad.

These developments indicate a potential escalation in the ongoing conflict, with Syria’s government reinforcing its control over vital areas and preparing for possible military operations against the SDF and its allies.

By Tamilla Hasanova