ISW: Wider Russian spring offensive appears to be culminating in Ukraine

Prominent voices in the Russian information space are increasingly setting information conditions to prepare for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian Security Council Deputy Head Dmitry Medvedev emphasised on March 24 that the Russian General Staff is aware that Kyiv is preparing for offensive operations and that the Russian General Staff is considering its own decisions and responses to prepare for a Ukrainian offensive, Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian actors are disseminating disinformation about plans for a Ukrainian attack towards Belgorod Oblast, in order to draw Russian troops to border areas and allow Ukrainian troops to launch attacks on other sectors of the front.

Another Russian milblogger warned that Ukrainian forces will likely try to launch a counteroffensive before the Russian defence industrial base (DIB) gains the capacity to increase production and bolster Russian defensive potential.

The wider Russian spring offensive appears to be culminating, and the Russian information space appears to be responding to the slow-down of Russian operations and potential for Ukraine to regain the initiative with substantial anxiety.

Russian military command will need to commit a significant number of forces to the frontline to either prevent culmination or launch renewed offensive operations, and it is unlikely that such forces exist at sufficient scale to do either.

Key Takeaways:

• Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov has reportedly formed a Wagner Group-affiliated private military company (PMC) in occupied Crimea.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the Russian Security Council likely as part of his effort to portray himself as a present and effective wartime leader.

• Russian forces conducted limited attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

• The Ukrainian General Staff corrected its March 23 statement that Russian forces withdrew from Nova Kakhovka, occupied Kherson Oblast.

• Russian occupation authorities announced the creation of a pro-Russian militaristic youth movement aimed at brainwashing children.

• The Russian government is adopting new measures to revitalise and eliminate corruption, lethargy, and resistance in Russia’s defence industrial base (DIB).

• The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (UK MoD) reported on March 24 that at least 1,000 Russian personnel training at the 230th Combined Arms Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, redeployed to Russia.