Kazakhstan remains central to Beijing’s plans for Belt and Road as China sets sights on Europe

South China Morning Post has published an article claiming that with the Central Asian nation crucial to Belt and Road plans, Xi Jinping has reaffirmed Beijing’s strong relationship with Kazakhstan. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

It was in Kazakhstan where Chinese President Xi Jinping first proposed the Belt and Road Initiative a decade ago – a move which has since seen Beijing bankroll billions of dollars worth of projects around the globe.

Now, the central Asian nation is again taking centre stage, with it expected to be a crucial part of the initiative’s next phase as Beijing’s ambitions turn to growing its influence in Europe, one of its key markets.

Kazakhstan, the world’s largest landlocked country, is geographically positioned to connect China to Europe through the Eurasian land mass, making it a vital transit corridor.

While meeting Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Beijing on Tuesday ahead of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, Xi recalled that it was in Kazakhstan where he first put forward the idea for the Silk Road Economic Belt.

“China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to further facilitate trade and investment, and implement key investment cooperation projects in production capacity,” Xi said in the meeting. He also promised that China would “strengthen connectivity” and expand the scale of railroad freight transport between the two countries. Xi added that the China-Kazakhstan agreement on mutual visa exemption would also soon come into force.

Meanwhile, Tokayev reaffirmed his country’s backing of belt and road.

“Kazakhstan has firmly supported and actively participated in the initiative since day one,” he said at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

But it is Xi’s promise that China will boost the use of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), and enhance the capacity, scale and efficiency of the China-Europe Railway Express that puts Kazakhstan firmly at the centre of the map – and at the centre of China’s ambitions in Asia and Europe.

On Wednesday, in his opening address at the Belt and Road forum, Xi revealed that Beijing will speed up the development of the China-Europe Railway Express, participate in the TITR, and build a new logistics corridor across the Eurasian continent linked by direct railway and road transport.

“We will vigorously integrate ports, shipping and trading services under the ‘Silk Road Maritime’ and accelerate the building of the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor and the Air Silk Road,” Xi said, while unveiling a 780 billion yuan (US$106 billion) financial package that would fund both China’s signature projects and “small yet smart” livelihood programmes under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Observers said going through the list of cooperation projects released at the third Belt and Road forum, it appears China is banking on the China-Europe Railway Express to create a new corridor to access the European market via Central Asia.

David Shinn, a China expert and professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said geographically, the plans seem to focus on central Asia.

“It … looks like [the belt and road] will concentrate on the region between China and Europe, especially central Asia,” he said.

“Outlying areas such as Africa and Latin America will receive less attention as the Belt and Road Initiative returns to its initial area of focus,” Shinn said, referring to Central Asia and Southeast Asia where the initiative was initially targeted.

From the forum, there were nine memorandums of understanding or projects agreed with Kazakhstan, eight with Uzbekistan, three with Kyrgyzstan, one with Turkmenistan and one with Tajikistan, plus five Central Asian regional projects, according to Oyuna Baldakova, a research associate at King’s College London.

However, Baldakova said that did not mean other regions would be left out, as there were plenty of projects with Arab, African and Latin American countries as well.

“So I wouldn’t say that Beijing is returning to its initial regions of focus,” Baldakova said.

Interestingly, she said there were two projects based around the Caspian Sea – the development of the China-Europe freight trains’ trans-Caspian transport route and the Aktau Port container hub project, located on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan.

“It shows that Beijing is keen on developing the Middle Corridor that goes from China via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and further to Europe,” Baldakova said.

She said it was an alternative to the Northern Corridor that goes via Russia.

Surprisingly, Russia was not mentioned at all in the list of cooperation projects. But in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi said China would work with Russia and other members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) to forge stronger synergy between the Belt and Road cooperation and the EEU, and carry out regional cooperation at a higher level.

Meanwhile in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos and Cambodia, China is planning a series of mega infrastructure projects.

In Indonesia, China is planning to build a China-Indonesia Palm Park Agricultural Mechanisation Service Centre, has signed a loan agreement for the Jenelata Dam project and is set to establish a medicinal plant protection research centre.

Chinese companies are also investing in the Indonesian nickel cobalt hydroxide wet process project, with an annual output of 120,000 tonnes of nickel, 15,000 tonnes of cobalt, 50,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide and 10,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, as well as a nickel metal production line and supporting facilities project with an annual output of 126,000 tonnes.

Benjamin Barton, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia campus, said Xi’s reference to the China-Europe railway links that cross large swathes of Central Asia and even West Asia gave a clue as to the future focus of the initiative.

“Perhaps this is indeed an indication that, in relative terms, Beijing might be looking to reorient the Belt and Road Initiative’s focus back towards the geographical core of the New Silk Roads – Central Asia for projects on land and Southeast Asia for the maritime dimension,” he said.

Barton said there would necessarily be an element of circumspection and contraction in China’s revised approach to the Belt and Road.

“It is possible that Africa may lose out as a result because of the higher degree of risk surrounding infrastructure projects in some countries on the continent linked to poor credit ratings, or instability triggered by civil conflicts,” he said.

“It is ironic, because China largely made a name for itself in the global infrastructure realm by taking risks in parts of the world largely abandoned or overlooked by ‘traditional’ powers.”

Barton said it was intriguing that Xi focused on China-Europe railway cooperation as an exemplar of Belt and Road cooperation, when there were plenty of other examples of success stories he could have used that were unrelated to China-Europe relations.

“Maybe this could be interpreted as Xi extending an olive branch to European countries as part of a general warming of ties between China and the West after a tense few years of strategic rivalry,” Barton said.

Dr Rebecca Nadin, director of global risks and resilience for the Overseas Development Institute, said the Belt and Road was originally seen as a Eurasian initiative and evolved to encompass Africa and Latin America.

She said expanding trade opportunities, increasing outward investment and building cultural connections with China’s immediate regional neighbours had been a constant focus and continued to be the case. She added that this type of regional integration was critical to address a range of domestic economic and security objectives.

Nadin said the commitment to build a new logistics corridor across the Eurasian continental area was clearly seen as a critical component in China’s ambitions to mitigate supply chain disruptions.

“So from a transport or supply chain connectivity perspective, then Central Asia and South Asia are going to be very important to get right for Beijing,” Nadin said.

She said the cooperation projects showed continuity in their geographic focus, rather than a shift back, as Africa and Latin America were still important for trade, investment and diplomatic support for China’s emerging world order narrative.

For instance, Xi met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the forum, and the relationship was upgraded to an “all-weather strategic partnership”. Xi also met leaders from Nigeria, Kenya and the Republic of Congo. China committed to increasing imports of African agricultural goods as well as investment in African industrialisation, green development and the digital economy.

“Whether this collaboration comes under the umbrella of the BRI [Belt and Road Initiative], the GSI [Global Security Initiative] or GDI [Global Development Initiative] remains to be seen, but the overall message China is trying to convey is that China supports the developing world and the US/West does not,” Nadin said.

“China needs the developing world to see how they fit into China’s plan for global multipolarity.”