Kyiv doubts Russia’s capacity for covert 100,000 mobilisation, Zelenskyy says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv is preparing for multiple scenarios of a potential escalation by Russia along the northern front, including the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis, following a high-level meeting focused on intelligence assessments of possible offensive operations.

In a statement published on his Telegram channel on May 20, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence agencies had conducted a detailed analysis of Russian military planning.

“We thoroughly analysed the available intelligence data regarding Russian planning of offensive operations in the Chernihiv–Kyiv direction. For each possible course of action by the enemy, we are preparing responses in case the Russians actually decide to expand their aggression. Our forces in this direction will be increased.”

A central concern discussed during the meeting was the potential use by Russia of neighbouring territories, particularly Belarus, as a staging ground for further military operations. In response, Zelenskyy said Ukraine is intensifying both diplomatic and intelligence measures.

“We are also reviewing the possibilities of our external activity. I have instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to prepare additional measures of diplomatic pressure on Belarus, which may be used by Russia for such an expansion of the war. Relevant non-public tasks have also been assigned to Ukrainian intelligence services.”

Zelenskyy also addressed broader measures aimed at countering Russia, including expanding what he described as “long-range sanctions” and increasing pressure to force a reduction in Russian military activity.

“As for Russian directions. We are preparing to expand the geography of our long-range sanctions, which have already proven very effective, and to apply more tangible pressure on Russia to reduce its aggression.”

The Ukrainian leader further commented on intelligence reports suggesting Russia may be preparing additional mobilisation efforts involving up to 100,000 personnel. However, he expressed skepticism about Moscow’s current capacity to carry out such a move covertly.

“We have also taken note of information about preparations in Russia for new mobilization steps — an additional 100,000 people. We believe that, at present, such potential for covert mobilisation in Russia is absent; therefore, we should expect Russian political decisions of a different format, in particular similar to those recently seen regarding the Transnistrian region of Moldova.”

Zelenskyy concluded by emphasising Ukraine’s defensive posture and the need to strengthen resilience against multiple possible escalation scenarios.

“Ukraine will certainly defend itself, and our current task is to strengthen our state so that none of the five Russian scenarios for expanding the war through northern Ukraine will succeed.”

By Tamilla Hasanova