Latvian intelligence predicts Ukraine war to last at least until late 2023

The Latvian Constitutional Protection Bureau has said in its annual counterintelligence report that Russia had no plans to halt military operations in Ukraine and is still considering a renewed offensive against Kyiv.

"According to our estimates, the fighting will continue for at least the whole of 2023 ... Russia's strategic goals have not changed, so it probably plans to resume a new offensive after a rest period in winter. The Russian regime is still considering a renewed offensive against Kyiv. The seizure of Donbas will remain a minimum tactical objective," European Pravda quotes the report as reading.

It is also noted that Ukraine needs significantly more military support from the West to win.

"Both Russia and Ukraine are short of arms and ammunition, so one of the most important factors affecting further developments will be the ability of both sides of the war to obtain or produce them as quickly as possible," the report says.

The intelligence report said there is now a low probability of Russia using nuclear weapons, as this could lead to more direct Western intervention in the war and alienate Russia from friendly countries such as China and India.
"Nuclear weapons could be used if, in Putin's view, the existence of the regime is threatened. At least so far there is no indication of this," the document notes.